Scientific opinion solidifies that this latest El Niño will be the strongest in living memory, with food prices rising sharply since mid-August due to Russian attacks on Ukrainian shipping and northern hemisphere droughts. Historical comparison shows stark improvement: the 1877-78 El Niño killed 50mn people, while the 1997-98 episode killed only 22,000. The key difference is international trade liberalization enabling rapid imports.

During the 1997-98 El Niño, Bangladeshi traders imported rice from India when domestic production dropped 20 per cent, averting famine that killed 1.5mn in the 1970s due to restricted trade. Paul Dorosh at the International Food Policy Research Institute argues trade plays a critical role during emergencies. The UN’s World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization have launched an appeal for preventive measures targeting 8.8 million vulnerable people in 22 countries with a budget of $202 million.

Governments should generally let international food markets function while preparing for crises.