Last updated: August 21, 2026, 6:37 AM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Markets Wrap: A Whipsawed Week Finds Its Footing

Global stocks and bonds finished the stretch with modest gains as oil prices broke a relentless run higher, offering respite from mounting worries about inflationary pressures. Even so, the S&P 500 is headed for a weekly loss, with bond markets shrugging off Treasury efforts to curb borrowing costs. Treasury yields held close to flat after earlier retracing the sharp falls that initially followed the Treasury's surprise bond market intervention. In New York, bond markets remained volatile as investors assessed geopolitical turmoil and crude's renewed climb. Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer argued equities face no serious threat from higher yields or oil as long as Brent crude stays below $100 a barrel.

Treasuries: Bessent's Buyback Gambit

The US Treasury said the current maximum size of its buyback operations will rise from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation. Market relief at the unexpected intervention proved short-lived, with analysts citing lingering concerns about high debt levels and government spending. Critics noted the Treasury is buying long bonds, but not very many — speaking loudly while wielding a teeny-tiny stick. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is taking on bond vigilantes in the $32tn Treasury market, though Wall Street investors dismissed the move to buy more long-term debt as "a band-aid on a bullet hole." Scott Bessent topped the FT's First FT newsletter as his intervention failed to soothe investors, alongside Healey's deficit warning and HSBC's job cuts.

Treasuries: Insider Views and Suspicious Timing

Former Treasury official Nellie Liang said of the push: "Ultimately the goal is to signal that high rates are a concern." The NYT framed the move as interventionist tactics to lower interest rates, with Bessent reinventing the government's role in the world's most important bond market. Suspiciously, long-bond ETF bets spiked a day before the announcement, as one or more investors piled into the yield-sensitive fund on Tuesday. The decision is also clouding the T-bill outlook, because short-term securities are expected to help fund the operations.

Treasuries: The Road to Lower Yields

Goldman Sachs argues cooling inflation remains the most compelling way to lower bond yields, for all the Treasury's efforts. Analysts said the recent rise partly reflected expectations that AI-driven growth could keep interest rates elevated, as Big Tech's borrowing binge gathers pace. An NYT explainer asked why yields are rising and what it means for everything from auto loans to mortgages. The global bond rout is making borrowing more expensive for everyone, on top of factors already rattling investors. Wall Street sees no end in sight to the selloff. Global government bond yields hit multiyear highs before losing some steam in late Tuesday US trading.

Treasuries: Quant Pain and Dollar Doubts

Quant funds were rocked as the Treasury boosted buybacks, with the tumultuous session pressuring momentum trades already unsettled by the AI-related stock selloff. Currency strategists at Citigroup turned bearish on the dollar near term, citing a less hawkish Fed, midterm elections and more debt buybacks. Meanwhile, money-market funds are providing stock market rocket fuel through ABCP conduits.

The $40tn Debt Milestone

America's national debt hit $40tn as the borrowing binge continues, with Trump's fiscal promises undercut by spending on the Iran war, tax cuts and tariff refunds. The FT reported US government debt reached the record as borrowing rises at a historic rate despite Trump's vow to stabilise America's finances. The NYT put the precise tally at $40,047,425,768,420 in US debt, alongside news of an experimental vaccine for skin cancer.

Fed Watch: Warsh Under Scrutiny

A WSJ opinion argued the bond "chaos" is a sign Kevin Warsh's plan is working, as the Fed becomes less willing to subsidize spendthrift lawmakers. Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, are urging the Fed chairman to disclose any conversations with Trump since he took over the central bank in May. Bessent's intervention is another complication for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with whether to raise interest rates.

US Equities: Retail Gloom Drags the Tape

US stocks slumped as bond yields rose alongside crude prices. The declines came after weak earnings reports from Walmart and Alibaba. Stocks and bonds slid, brushing off the Treasury's buyback plans, as mixed retailer results offered more gloom on the health of the American consumer.

Walmart's Warning Shot

Walmart added to Wall Street pressures with weak sales growth. Its shares tumbled as sales growth slowed to a six-year low, and the retailer will deploy almost $2.9bn in tariff refunds to fund price cuts for squeezed American consumers. The NYT reported Walmart and other big US retailers warning that consumers are turning cautious even with healthy household balance sheets.

Bright Spots: Ross Stores and Resilient Discounting

Ross Stores boosted its outlook, now forecasting earnings per share of $8.61 to $8.77 for the year after second-quarter profit and sales gained on higher traffic. The off-price retailer raised its annual profit outlook for a second time this year, signaling that its momentum is holding up. Alibaba posted weaker earnings amid heavy AI investments as the Chinese e-commerce titan races to preserve its lead. Coty guided for revenue to decline by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage and named a new CFO. Big Food faces its biggest challenge from people who don't want to eat anymore, as GLP-1s threaten billions in sales.

US Corporate Notes

GM ruled US auto sales for 100 years, but Toyota is closing in as the American automaker increases profits while selling fewer vehicles. Sony President and CEO Hiroki Totoki explained the company's pivot from hardware to entertainment powerhouse. SpaceX is racking up wins in Washington, landing lucrative contracts and benefiting from the Trump administration's deregulatory push. Lumen Technologies' finance chief says the CMO-CRO-CTO trio is a vital C-suite partnership for managing the current tech and AI landscape.

Housing: Affordability Deteriorates

The US housing affordability gauge worsened for the first time in almost three years, as higher borrowing costs soaked up a bigger chunk of new homebuyers' earnings. Hovnanian swung to a third-quarter loss as the home builder continues to cope with a stagnant housing market.

Sector Roundups

The latest health care market talk offers insight on Moderna, Merck KGaA and Novonesis. The energy and utilities roundup covers oil futures and Ithaca Energy. The auto and transport roundup spans Uber, HMM and Volvo. On market structure, a WSJ analysis asks whether "less is more" works for ETFs, noting chips and bonds stabilized.

Meta's Trillion-Dollar Legal Overhang

Meta's trial adds a trillion-dollar risk to its struggling stock, which has been under pressure all year over AI spending questions; the case accuses its social media platforms of targeting children.

Gold's Safe-Haven Bid

Gold rose above $4,600 a troy ounce, headed for a weekly gain of 4% on concerns over US government debt and borrowing costs. The metal was on track for a third weekly gain after the Treasury's unexpected ramp-up in buybacks underscored concerns about the debt burden. Comex gold settled 0.6% higher at $4,516.30, with silver up 3.5% as both metals notched a second consecutive gain. Earlier in the stretch, precious metals had settled lower as bonds sold off and Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs.

Oil: The Iran Blockade Trade

Oil slipped but remained on track for a weekly gain of around 5% after Trump vowed sweeping measures aimed at further isolating Iran's economy. Crude headed for a substantial weekly gain as the US push raised the specter of further market disruption. Oil futures rose for a fifth straight session as the US planned what Trump called unprecedented economic isolation of Iran.

Choking Off Tehran

The amount of Iranian oil readily available to Chinese buyers is rapidly running out, showing the effectiveness of the US blockade of the country's ports. Trump's threats of an "economic D-Day" carry a clear signal to Iran that he does not want to go back to war. He also appeared to suggest penalties for countries doing business with Iran, though he did not specify actions. As Iran and the US settle into an uneasy standoff, each side seems to believe it can hold out longer than the other.

Oil Market Ripples

China bought millions of barrels of Saudi crude via a rare tender and long-term contracts, though overall purchases remain well below pre-war levels. US refiners are capitalizing as buyers vie for shrinking diesel supply. US natural gas futures settled lower with little consolation from the smallest inventory build of the season. Venezuela-US oil deals remain clouded in secrecy, with opaque processes and uncertain rules. The heirs of late Latin American mogul Oswaldo Cisneros accused Venezuela of unjustly confiscating oil-drilling rights and awarding them to a US company.

Refining, Pipelines and Drought

The energy crisis won't save western oil refineries, with North America and Europe set to lose further capacity because of investor wariness. Trump wants to revive Keystone XL, but the industry is pushing a trio of alternative pipelines to deliver heavy Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries. The Panama Canal will cut daily transits as El Niño grips the region, only the second such reduction.

Shipping Lanes Under Threat

Two ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz were attacked as oil prices rose, killing at least one sailor six months into the conflict. With Iran exerting influence on Hormuz, Houthi attacks on a nearby Red Sea passageway assume even greater importance for the world economy. Somali piracy surged with two hijackings in four days, stoking fears of a comeback. The USS Abraham Lincoln left the Middle East after a nine-month deployment largely supporting US operations against Iran. The weary carrier departed as Russia takes advantage of Ukraine's depleted stockpile.

Agricultural Commodities

Palm oil climbed to its highest level in about 20 months as rising biofuel demand and El Niño production risks underpin prices. Corn futures topped the $5-a-bushel mark for the first time in 18 months after weaker-than-expected US crop tour results. Ghana expects its cocoa harvest to drop 13% next season on adverse weather and disease, a setback that could further boost global prices. Chinese coking coal futures are surging as supply tightens following the deadly accident in Shanxi three months ago.

Europe: Banks Lift the Open

European indexes largely rose at the open, with the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 lifted by the banking sector. Even so, European stocks extended their worst losing streak in three years. Goldman and JPMorgan are among the most bullish houses on European equities.

Europe: Winners and Movers

Dutch biotech Argenx soared on Vyvgart trial success, capping a big week for the sector on both sides of the Atlantic. Swedish defense-technology firm Mildef has surged 80% to become Europe's best-performing defense stock of 2026, riding a "third wave" of military spending focused on computer systems and drones. Thales sold a €1bn ($1.2bn) bond to help fund its acquisition of maritime robotics firm Exail Technologies. KME Group picked banks for a Frankfurt listing of Cunova Gmb H, which could value the copper-nickel unit at as much as €1bn ($1.2bn). Carlsberg lifted the lower end of guidance as nonalcoholic drinks delivered 7.8% growth while beer volumes declined 1%. Nineteen Brazilian municipalities joined BHP and Vale's dam-collapse payout scheme over the 2015 disaster, a blow to the English High Court class action.

Monte dei Paschi's €34bn Counterstrike

Monte dei Paschi launched all-share bids for Banco BPM and Banca Generali as it fights off a takeover offer from Intesa Sanpaolo. The twin takeovers would create a €70bn Italian bank, the latest twist in a protracted run of consolidation among Italian financial groups. Bloomberg put the combined value at €34 billion ($40 billion) as MPS seeks to avoid being bought by Intesa Sanpaolo.

UK: Deficit Shock and Fiscal Warnings

The UK posted an unexpected budget deficit of £1.8bn in July, underscoring the challenge facing chancellor John Healey ahead of his first Budget. Sterling stayed weaker versus the euro after retail sales remained subdued and public finances deteriorated more than expected, with the euro near a three-week high against the pound. UK stock futures were steady while the pound climbed on the rate outlook. Allies say Healey plans to stay "well within" Labour's fiscal rules after being warned to limit borrowing amid the bond sell-off. FTSE 100 stocks dropped as miners and oil stocks weighed.

UK: Inflation, Bankers and Anomalies

UK inflation picked up in July, driven by a surge in household energy costs to the highest annual rate since March's war-driven spike. HSBC is spending $68M on its biggest cull of senior bankers since the financial crisis, cutting 134 as Europe's largest lenders shed the most highly paid staff since 2020. Investigators discovered a track irregularity near the site of the East Sussex derailment that injured 30 people. London cabbies are plotting "skulduggery" to take on robotaxis. Nearly nine in 10 leasehold flats are still on the market after six months, with buyers deterred by inflated asking prices and high service charges. British food firms urged new PM Andy Burnham to act on costs as European droughts push up the price of key ingredients.

Japan: Inflation Tests the BOJ

Japanese inflation rose as the Bank of Japan weighs a September rate increase, with the yen weakening despite joint intervention. Japan's 20-year bond auction will test whether elevated yields can lure buyers back to the long end as the global debt selloff piles pressure on the market. Lintec shares fell to a three-month low after its largest shareholder announced plans to exit, part of a broader divestment push. Japan's US ties could not save ICC President Tomoko Akane from Trump's sanctions.

Korea: Chipmaker Payouts and Labor Unrest

Unprecedented shareholder-return plans by South Korea's chipmakers may extend the won's rally if the firms tap local currency markets. SK Hynix plans more than $28bn in buybacks, which it says would be South Korea's largest ever. Hyundai's union launched its first full-day strike since 2016 after months of failed wage talks and partial walkouts. Seoul is exploring a new financial hub beyond overcrowded Seoul to ease concentration in the capital region. Memory stocks are struggling for momentum as "smart money" moves on and AI-trade concerns overshadow strong fundamentals.

Australia and New Zealand

Positions on Australia's three-year bond futures have risen toward an all-time high as the nation's growing debt pile fuels hedging demand. Alphabet issued kangaroo bonds in Australia for the first time in August to help fund AI spending. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.5% in July, supporting the Reserve Bank's view of a gradually loosening labor market and prompting traders to pare rate-hike bets. Inghams shares dropped 11% after the poultry producer flagged higher feed, diesel and packaging costs from the Middle East war. Australia's housing slump is dividing the earnings season into winners and losers. Stockland rose the most since 1987 as tax changes favoring new builds boosted residential developers. Fletcher Building doesn't expect a meaningful recovery in its New Zealand markets until 2027. National Australia Bank is cutting jobs in its corporate and institutional division as it reorganizes roles.

China: Star 50 Ascendant

Shanghai's Star 50 index is up almost a quarter this year, outstripping Hong Kong amid the Chinese tech frenzy. China's AI boom is making Star 50 the stock index that matters, shifting focus from traditional benchmarks. Hua Hong, Kingboard Laminates and Zijin Gold may join Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index. Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree surged 600% in its Shanghai trading debut as investors clamoured for shares. Alibaba-backed robotics startup Dexmal is seeking a valuation of about 20 billion yuan ($3bn) in an ongoing funding round. WuXi AppTec has become the top short target after an 80% rally drew a growing group of skeptics. China materials stocks surged to the top of the market over the past month as gold and copper rallies transformed the lagging sector into a leader. A low-budget cartoon about a calf became a box-office hit, turning online ridicule into millions of dollars in ticket sales.

Evergrande's Final Reckoning

Evergrande creditors owed $45bn face a more complex path to recovering even pennies on the dollar in one of China's biggest ever liquidations. China sentenced Evergrande's founder Hui Ka Yan to life in prison, capping the downfall of the property empire. The property crisis has spiraled for five years, with real estate values plummeting and households in financial distress.

India: Growth Optimism, Bond Jitters

India's economic activity edged up in August from a four-year low as a services pickup offset a sharp manufacturing slowdown, per HSBC's flash survey. Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said growth may top the RBI's 6.7% forecast, possibly nearing 7% through March. India bond traders were left reeling after surprisingly hawkish RBI minutes, with yields potentially drifting higher as FX-deposit inflows fade. The securities regulator's record-time ban on a JPMorgan unit is seen as a warning against manipulating the country's new closing auction. Goldman Sachs is muscling into Indian banks' turf with state share deals, long the near-exclusive preserve of local giants. SpiceJet wrangled a last-minute reprieve as the food safety regulator cracks the whip.

Emerging Markets: Africa and Beyond

Nigeria remains attractive even after a 64% rally made it the world's best performer after South Korea, says a T. Rowe Price fund manager. Citigroup plans to go long on Zambia's bonds, seeing the copper producer in line for credit upgrades after recent elections. Dangote has offered East African nations a 30% equity stake in its planned regional refinery, per Kenyan President William Ruto's top economic adviser. FTSE Russell will defer certain Indonesian index changes until at least December to assess market reforms. Singapore police have begun looking into iron ore trader Radiant World after counterparties raised concerns about allegedly falsified documents. PNJ was cleared of wrongdoing in its diamond import and distribution operations under preliminary findings of Vietnam's smuggling probe.

The AI Financing Frenzy

Broadcom is in talks with lenders to raise more than $60bn in debt for an AI chip financing deal benefiting Anthropic and others. Anthropic is set to add Citigroup to the banks working on its IPO as Wall Street jostles for roles on the mega-listing. Google struck a $12bn AI chip deal with Marvell that includes an option to buy shares. Stripe bought Open Router for $8bn, betting that an AI world still needs middlemen. Nvidia looks well placed for the next stage of the boom, using its balance sheet to seed new markets and a new business model.

AI: The Backlash Builds

A WSJ analysis argued the AI bubble may deflate rather than burst, as the economic transformation proceeds more slowly than promised. Jasmine Sun examined how the hyperscalers got blindsided by the anti-data-center movement. Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast explored what AI got wrong about the public backlash, noting even the builders are anxious about destabilizing job losses. One columnist made the case against "AI", proposing we call it Synthetic Intelligence instead. Nick Bostrom pondered what happens if AI solves all of our problems. Loudoun County, Va. hosts more than 250 data centers bringing huge tax revenues, but some officials worry the county has become too dependent on that cash. Day One Data Centers is seeking a HK$1.86bn loan ($237M) ahead of a planned US IPO. The Texas Stock Exchange is preparing to welcome PWRX, an ETF focused on AI and power demand. Asia's smaller AI firms are leading emerging markets' rebound as investors rotate beyond chipmaking heavyweights into data-center suppliers.

Private Credit: Strains Spread

Britain's pensions — a $1tn pool — are private credit's next big thing, with a deal including Standard Life, CVC and Goldman Sachs tapping the investor cash. The FT warned private credit risks remain at large after 2025's bankruptcies. An FT analysis shows stress is spreading across portfolios as defaults rise. Carlyle-backed TAMKO reported an earnings drop of more than 50% just weeks after borrowing to fund a dividend. Clearlake's FinThrive said earnings fell 17% in the second quarter as it drew on a $150M credit line. Guggenheim's loan whipsawed after executives told lenders earnings should improve in the third quarter. The debt traded in distressed territory after an investor call, as CEO Mark Walter's business empire came under pressure from a probe into his insurance holdings. The DOJ sought Egan-Jones records in the Walter probe; the rater provided the only known ratings for more than a fifth of the bonds his insurers held. Private-equity firms are looking for an exit three years after buying EverBank, with the five owners clashing over strategy. HOOPP's global private equity head Lori Hall-Kimm is departing for another opportunity. BlackSun raised $1bn for its inaugural vehicle, Mega Fund I, targeting $7bn across sports, media and entertainment. Orion180 filed for a US IPO to carve out a bigger share of the fast-growing specialty homeowners and flood insurance market.

Crypto and Market Structure

The CME CEO sparred with the CFTC chair, saying the agency must do more to prevent manipulation on prediction markets. The CFTC head said crypto will get market-structure rules even if Congress fails to pass landmark legislation. World Liberty's stablecoin has become a partisan target, with Elizabeth Warren joined by some Democrats who voted for the Genius Act. Trump, who has amassed enormous wealth in crypto, hosted industry leaders and urged Congress to pass a bill tilting regulation in the industry's favor. Two Binance employees were detained in the UAE amid police inquiries before being released, signaling legal pressure in the home of the exchange's main regulator. Cantor Fitzgerald is giving Wall Street clients access to Kalshi's prediction markets. Ripple's brokerage arm raised $275M through the private placement bond market.

Canada: Tariff Reprieve

Canada and the US resumed talks over Trump tariffs as a new deadline loomed, remaining apart on key issues despite his claim of a deal. Trump and Mark Carney seemed to make progress, but questions lingered about what Canada would give up. Trump said a deal was reached and paused 50% levies on billions of dollars in goods after intense talks with Carney. Carney and Trump spoke again as the midnight Tuesday deadline neared. Canadian stocks climbed as Trump delayed the new 50% tariffs by three days, saying the sides were close to a trade deal. The aluminum premium tumbled after the administration indicated it would lower tariffs on certain Canadian exports.

Deals and M&A Roundup

James Hardie will sell its European Fermacell business to Holcim for $980M to focus