Chinese coking coal prices are surging as supply tightens after the deadly accident in Shanxi three months ago.

Futures in Dalian have risen 15% this week to as high as 1,583.50 yuan ($235) a ton, the strongest level since October 2024, reflecting dwindling stockpiles of the steelmaking fuel. Shanxi, the northern province that supplies about half of China’s output, has been most affected by the wave of safety inspections that followed the country’s worst coal‑mining disaster since 2009.

The accident has triggered stricter enforcement and forced many mines to shut temporarily, tightening the overall supply curve and driving up prices across the market. Traders and steel producers are watching the situation closely, as higher coking coal costs can translate into increased steel production expenses. Bloomberg reports that the market volatility is expected to continue until the supply chain stabilizes and safety measures are fully implemented. The episode underscores the fragility of China’s coal industry and its ripple effects on global commodity markets.

Industry analysts suggest that the price spike may persist for several months as mines gradually resume operations, but the exact duration remains uncertain. Meanwhile, international buyers are adjusting procurement strategies to hedge against price volatility. This dynamic could reshape supply chains globally. Such shifts may influence investment flows in the sector.