Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Middle East Tensions Fuel Oil and Inflation Concerns

Oil futures edged lower as traders weighed hopes of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire against ongoing hostilities which continued to keep crude prices elevated. Gold remained steady as investors monitored the conflict for potential impacts on inflation. U.S. petrol prices climbed back above $4 a gallon, adding to inflationary pressures. The escalating Middle East conflict pushed soybean and corn futures higher, benefiting from increased demand for biofuels. Kuwait experienced significant damage to its energy infrastructure following intense Iranian retaliatory attacks, including strikes on an oil facility and a power plant. Palm oil prices rose to a near one-month high, tracking renewed strength in crude and other vegetable oil prices amid escalating U.S.-Iran military strikes. Loading operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast were halted after a drone strike, prompting the Kazakh government to call for an end to such attacks.

Trade Wars and Currency Weakness

The Canadian dollar weakened following President Trump’s announcement of plans to impose a 50% tariff on a broad range of goods. The administration intends to use an untested legal provision to implement significant duties on Canadian exports, reigniting a clash with a major trading partner as the WSJ Dollar Index rose for three consecutive trading days. China’s shipments of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. remain well below pre-trade war levels despite a truce, underscoring concerns about Beijing's adherence to the agreement.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

New Zealand's annual inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in over two years, driven by soaring fuel prices, bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank to consider further interest-rate hikes. Money-market funds are shifting toward ultra short-term holdings as uncertainty grows over the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Hedge funds have amassed their largest net short positions on the New Zealand dollar since 2006, betting that a rebound in global oil prices may exacerbate domestic economic pressures as leveraged funds have taken their short positions to a record high.

Corporate Dealmaking and Sector Performance

Icahn Enterprises is set to sell its auto-service chain Pep Boys to Mavis for $700 million. Steel Dynamics reported a second-quarter profit and revenue increase, driven by improved steel pricing, and expects strong domestic steel and aluminum consumption through the remainder of 2026. Crown Holdings posted higher sales as global beverage can volumes increased by 5%. Cracker Barrel raised its guidance following a divestiture and sale-leaseback deal. BlackRock is leading a $12 billion financing for new Meta data centers in Texas as it looks to sell more than $12 billion of bonds to finance the project. KKR & Co. and Vauban Infrastructure Partners are reportedly competing to acquire a majority stake in Portuguese fiber operator DStelecom. Lionheart Capital is nearing a $400 million deal for a stake in a Venezuelan oil field, potentially marking one of the first major private investments in the country's oil industry since U.S. sanctions began as the deal is one of the first major private investments. Netflix Inc. raised $1 billion from a U.S. high-grade bond sale, its first in two years, as slowing sales growth fuels investor scrutiny. Buyout firm Truelink has struck a $1 billion deal for coffee syrup maker Lyons Magnus as the company specializes in fruit-based ingredients and beverages. USA Rare Earth has named Serra Verde Group CEO Thras Moraitis to lead the combined company following a $2.8 billion combination as the two mining companies merged. Brookfield Asset Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board have agreed to buy LXP Industrial Trust for $5.2 billion. The company posted a profit of $135.8 million, or $4.07 a share, compared with $131.1 million, or $3.81 a share, a year earlier as Domino's Pizza reports higher profit. Canadian financial stocks are nearing the top spot as energy momentum fades as they are on the verge of overtaking energy as the best performing sector. Hedge funds have pulled back from U.S. tech stocks at a record pace over the past two months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Prime Services desk as Goldman Sachs notes record selling. Cadillac Mines Corp. and its backers are seeking to raise as much as C$363 million ($258 in an initial public offering, adding to the mining-driven rebound of public listing activity as the gold miner seeks an IPO. Washington, D.C. is stepping up to borrow $1.2 billion this week at its annual municipal debt sale, tapping the market as its credit stabilizes as the city prepares for a large bond sale. Shapoorji Pallonji Group has completed one of India’s largest private credit transactions, raising around 151 billion rupees ($1.6 as the Indian conglomerate secures significant funding. Angola signed deals with Chinese investors to develop the Barra do Dande Integrated Development Free Zone as the country seeks to establish a regional logistics hub. Telecom Italia is backing Poste Italiane's takeover bid as the state-controlled postal service seeks full control of the telecoms group.

Market Watch and Investor Sentiment

U.S. stocks edged lower to start the week, with chip shares rebounding from a recent selloff, while investors shrugged off a new Chinese AI model. The S&P 500 Index erased early gains to finish lower as a decline in Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. offset advances elsewhere. Bearish bets across U.S. stocks are surging to a record, reflecting anxiety about the staying power of a rally that has seen the S&P 500 jump 18% from late March as short bets against U.S. equities hit record levels. Goldman Sachs economists expect Turkey to allow a more rapid depreciation of the lira to prioritize external-balance stabilization over disinflation as Turkey's currency is expected to slide. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is looking to sell new preferred shares just days after a metric determining risk and value in these securities hit its lowest level since the global financial crisis as the investment bank offers preferred stock. U.S. Treasury yields rose to start a quiet week for economic data, with Treasurys falling and yields increasing. Chip stocks regained ground, boosting the Nasdaq, as investors kicked off the trading week with AI-bubble anxieties seemingly in the rearview mirror as chipmakers rebound. Asian currencies consolidated against the dollar in early trade but may weaken given the escalating Middle East conflict, which tends to undermine risk appetite as regional currencies face pressure.

Artificial Intelligence and Technology

Google's parent company, Alphabet, faces fresh tests as rapid advancements in Chinese artificial intelligence models raise questions about costly technology spending as AI giants face new challenges. Mobile apps are easy to create with artificial intelligence, but this doesn't necessarily translate to user enthusiasm as AI-generated apps flood the market. Big Tech’s AI backstops risk ignominy as large benefactors offer their balance sheets to enable unproven AI companies to borrow cheaply as AI companies secure funding. The creator of Claude Code discusses how AI is fundamentally reshaping the work of engineers as AI transforms software development. U.S. businesses are not significantly deepening their use of AI, with a focus on efficiency savings rather than new product development as AI adoption lags in the UK. Morgan Stanley is emerging as a key architect of financing structures behind data center build-outs, capitalizing on the AI boom through debt deals as the bank facilitates AI infrastructure financing. AI should prompt senior lawyers to sharpen their focus, as increased adoption of artificial intelligence is expected to lead to more calls for fee reductions as AI impacts legal fees.

Real Estate and Infrastructure

The bankrupt $1.2 billion Oceanwide Plaza project in Los Angeles, known as the Graffiti Towers, has been cleared for sale and potential completion as the project moves towards a resolution. U.S. stocks were mixed as investors kicked off the trading week with AI-bubble anxieties seemingly in the rearview mirror as chipmakers rebound. Costco is building stand-alone gas stations due to the popularity of its existing pumps and increasing scarcity of space as the retailer expands its fuel offerings.

Regulatory and Political Landscape

The Trump administration sought phone records of Times journalists and their relatives, aggressively pursuing confidential sources for articles about the president's new Air Force One as the government targets media sources. A judge has paused Paramount's $110 billion Warner Bros acquisition while examining its impact on competition in Hollywood as a merger faces regulatory scrutiny. The Justice Department is reportedly pulling back on prosecuting corporate crime, declining to charge businesses in several recent cases despite believing senior employees were involved in wrongdoing as corporate crime prosecution is scaling back. The EU has provisionally found that ten chemical groups and three trade bodies likely formed a pricing cartel to raise prices following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine as construction companies face cartel accusations. A U.S. judge has paused Paramount's $110 billion Warner Bros acquisition while examining its impact on competition in Hollywood as a merger faces regulatory scrutiny. The EU has provisionally found that ten chemical groups and three trade bodies likely formed a pricing cartel to raise prices following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine as construction companies face cartel accusations. The Trump administration, which sent numerous immigration agents to Minnesota, argued that policies limiting cooperation with ICE were unconstitutional, but a judge tossed the Justice Department's challenge to state immigration laws as immigration laws face legal challenges. The European Commission has found that ten chemical groups and three trade bodies likely formed a cartel to raise prices following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as construction companies face cartel accusations.

Other Notable Developments

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is investigating whether he can arrest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visits New York for the U.N. General Assembly as REF:12