China's shipments of rare-earth magnets to the US remain 20% below pre-trade war levels despite last year's truce, underscoring concerns in the Trump administration about Beijing's adherence to that agreement. The decline highlights persistent supply chain vulnerabilities for critical minerals essential to defense, automotive, and technology sectors. Rare-earth magnets, vital for everything from fighter jets to electric vehicles, have become a focal point in the broader strategic competition between the world's two largest economies.

While the Phase One trade deal included commitments on intellectual property and technology transfer, mineral export restrictions were not explicitly addressed, leaving room for continued limitations. Industry analysts note that China controls roughly 90% of global rare-earth processing capacity, giving it significant leverage. The sustained reduction in magnet exports suggests Beijing may be using its dominant position as a strategic tool, regardless of diplomatic agreements.

This situation has accelerated US efforts to develop domestic rare-earth supply chains and alternative sourcing partnerships with allies like Australia and Canada.