Last updated: September 30, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Global Equities
Global equities steadied on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected US inflation data prompted traders to trim bets on an October Federal Reserve rate hike, with futures pointing higher in early European trade. Asian markets mostly rose on the reduced rate-hike prospects, though gains were capped by persistent oil-price concerns. US stocks ended modestly lower after a worrying monthly survey of consumer confidence, even as a stronger-than-expected GDP reading helped the Dow open higher. Traders pared back their October hike expectations following the PCE data, which showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge holding firm.
Currencies
The dollar is wrapping up its best month since June as a surge in bond yields spills over to the greenback, with the WSJ Dollar Index rising 0.11% to 96.96. The yen strengthened past 157 per dollar, outperforming all G-10 peers, while the euro rose against the dollar after reaching a recent low. Mexico's peso has become the worst-performing currency in the world this month, sliding 6% as carry traders flee, while the RBI's net short dollar book surged past $200 billion on forex intervention plans.
Fixed Income & Rates
Long-term Treasury yields pushed higher despite a decline in oil prices, while the two-year yield fell as investors found some reprieve. The pace of the bond selloff is now critical for stocks, according to Goldman's Oppenheimer, as strong earnings keep equities on solid footing. Investors are snapping up Australian bonds on signals that rate hikes are nearing an end, while long-term Treasury yields slipped as investors found reprieve. A surge in bond yields is spilling over to the dollar, with the greenback index having its biggest monthly gain since June.
Commodities
Natural gas futures fell below the $3 per million British thermal units threshold, though prices are slowly approaching that level again amid mild US weather forecasts. Gold held steady as traders awaited key US inflation data, with the new front-month contract settling 0.27% higher at $4,147.70, though prices remain headed for a monthly loss. Oil held losses as Middle East exports near pre-war levels, with analysts saying flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain stable. OPEC+ is likely to stick with its plan for steady quotas, according to delegates.
Energy & Industrials
The US oil industry warns that diesel prices will not return to normal for a year, according to a Dallas Fed survey of energy executives. Chinese oil refineries are only using 75% of their capacity, raising questions about potential government intervention in the diesel market.
Equities & Corporate
Turkish stocks are on course to enter a bear market amid fund turmoil, while South Korean stocks are about to lose a key source of support as Samsung and SK Hynix near the end of their buyback programs. Real estate stocks represent a bold bet on monetary policy reversal, with pessimism severe as interest rates remain elevated. AI voice start-up Eleven Labs has doubled its valuation to $22bn in a share sale, while Robinhood is betting on AI trading bots that trade while users sleep.
Regulation & Policy
The EU has backed rules to ban pesticides in imports, while a US chemicals giant criticized the EU's decarbonisation incentives as not adding up. Trump is being sued over a move to claw back $810 million in federal funds set to expire. The UK needs to do more to support its own AI companies, with the prime minister needing a plan to avoid a US ban on Chinese technology.
Sports & Consumer
Manchester City was found to have artificially boosted its finances by more than £900mn, according to an independent commission. Chanel has designed its first Boat Race trophies, while luxury watches must win back wrist space from smartwatches and health-tracking rings.
Emerging Markets
Foreign money is fleeing India again as the oil spike undoes policy gains, while Capitec has increased provisions amid inflation and rate pressures in South Africa. Fintech Zilch has tapped banks for an IPO next year, while Hartford Insurance has named A. Morris Tooker as its next CEO.
Market Strategy
Investors should not own bonds and be cautious with stocks, as balance sheets become unbalanced and growth may suffer. DeepSeek and Huawei are targeting a key source of Nvidia's AI software monopoly, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.