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Oil Holds Loss as Middle East Exports Near Pre-War Level

Bloomberg Markets •
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Oil steadied after its biggest drop in more than a week on signs supply from the Middle East has risen to near pre-war levels as Saudi Arabia resumed flows through a pipeline that avoids the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate slipped toward $89 a barrel after dropping 3.5% in the previous session, while Brent settled near $103.

Crude exports from the Middle East have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note. That comes as Saudi Arabia restored flows through its East-West pipeline to at least 3.5 million barrels a day, about half its capacity, according to people familiar with the matter. However, supply of products from the Middle East, such as diesel and gasoline, are at just 58% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan said.

Meanwhile, the US will tap more oil from emergency reserves, offering further supply relief as the government grapples with surging fuel prices less than two months before the midterm elections. The release of as much as 40 million barrels will be the last of the nation’s 172 million-barrel contribution to a coordinated drawdown of global reserves since the war began.

Crude is still headed for a third monthly gain on escalating US-Iran tensions, the earlier disruptions to the Saudi bypass route and potential diesel export curbs by Washington. Brent is up almost 70% this year, after more than seven months of conflict in the Middle East. Elsewhere, key OPEC+ members are likely to stick with a plan to hold crude production quotas steady for next month when they meet this weekend, according to two delegates.