Morgan Stanley analysts have revised their model for data-centre power requirements, estimating a total demand of 257 GW by 2028. This creates a gap of between 30 and 40 per cent between US capacity and sales projections, equivalent to 10 NYCs of electricity. The shortfall arises because improved chip efficiency leads operators to pack more computing power into the same footprint rather than reducing consumption.

Nvidia's Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra architectures will increase IT power demand fivefold from 2025 to 2028, with denser server racks drawing more power and running hotter. Data centres are adopting servers with 72 GPUs each, producing as much heat as 10-25 ovens running simultaneously. While switching from Nvidia's Hopper family to Rubin Ultra could lower processor operation costs by 94 per cent, the denser racks require a step change in power demand.

The cumulative power shortfall could reach 107GW by 2029, or approximately 18 NYCs. "Time-to-power" solutions like Bloom Energy's fuel cells could add 5GW by 2028, but a 17GW shortfall remains in Morgan Stanley's mid-case scenario. The bank recommends investing in companies with viable energy production or equipment plans.