The 2026 NFL draft features a strong class of edge rushers, with seven players projected to go in the first round according to the SackSEER projection system. Developed by ESPN's Aaron Schatz, the model predicts sack totals across a player's first five pro seasons and evaluates prospects based on draft position, explosion index, and collegiate production.

David Bailey from Texas Tech leads the rankings with a projection of 26.6 sacks through Year 5, combining excellent collegiate production (14.5 sacks in 2025) with outstanding combine numbers including a 4.50-second 40-yard dash. Keldric Faulk of Auburn ranks second at 23.5 projected sacks despite being the heaviest edge rusher in the class at 278 pounds. The model also identifies sleeper prospect Malachi Lawrence from UCF, who despite modest college stats (7 sacks as a senior) posted elite workout numbers including a 40-inch vertical jump.

Zion Young of Missouri is flagged as potentially overrated, with only 6.5 sacks in his senior year and middling combine performance. The SackSEER system has removed three-cone drill times from its calculations this year due to declining participation, marking a significant methodological change for 2026 evaluations.