French government bonds (OATs) are under pressure as the budget deficit widens to 5.5 per cent of GDP, well above target, and economic growth lags neighbours. While the US runs a 6 per cent deficit, the comparison masks a specific French problem: 10-year and 30-year OAT spreads over German bunds have reached their widest levels since the post-Whatever-It-Takes era. Investors appear spooked by political risk — polls show Marine Le Pen on track for the presidency and Jean-Luc Mélenchon proposing debt cancellation — and by the minority government’s inability to cut next year’s deficit to 5 per cent of GDP.

Alphaville had expected French debt fireworks in 2027, but the timeline is accelerating.