Last updated: August 9, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Equities
Blockbuster earnings from the U.S.’s largest companies have helped ease worries about AI spending and inflationary pressures, bolstering stocks’ record run. Stock funds are up 10.6% so far in 2026 despite a turbulent month that saw tech stocks zip about on AI expectations. All three major U.S. indexes notched fresh records after a weak jobs report eased rate-hike fears, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capping their best week since April. The rally on surprise job losses was driven by expectations that the Fed will hold off on raising rates, as weak payroll data showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder argued the contraction reflects a “productivity revolution” rather than weakness, with AI helping buoy GDP even as hiring slows. Still, the weak jobs report does not eliminate the prospect of an interest rate rise, as the Fed remains focused on inflation.
In Europe, strong earnings have lifted the gloom from the Iran war, with companies in the Stoxx 600 on track for a 22% profit increase in Q2. European stocks are firing on all cylinders and drawing money managers who see this rally as durable. The benchmark rose for a fourth week as M&A chatter lifted regional benchmarks to fresh records. UK shares also surged, with FTSE 100 funds up 4% in a week.
In Asia, Japan’s GPIF posted a record $152 billion gain in Q2 on the global stock rally. India’s top bank, State Bank of India, beat profit estimates, sending shares higher. However, shadow lender Bajaj Finance led declines as the RBI tightened loan rules. South Korea’s volatility spike ebbed after a historic selloff flushed out leveraged positions. Samsung was added by Lazard’s $9.6 billion fund during the memory rout. In China, Unitree Robotics priced an IPO to raise about $900 million, testing investor appetite for humanoid robots.
Fixed Income & Central Banks
Treasury yields fell after July’s job losses, with the 10-year dropping as the market priced out rate hikes. Scott Bessent is sending signals that he’s eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher, according to Wall Street traders. The bond market is signaling rising risks for home buyers, AI data centers and the stock market, though it also benefits retirees. US Treasury auction cutbacks have sparked a debate on whether reducing supply can temper yields.
In Japan, the 15-year JGB yield presents a curiosity—maybe not as high as you think. Research suggests the neutral rate has moved up slightly. Japan’s biggest insurers reported $96 billion in bond paper losses in Q2, showing risks from rising interest rates. Covenant shelter bonds are surging as lower-rated Japanese borrowers turn to the market.
Trump restarted his battle to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sending a letter saying it is “considering” removal. Fed Chair Warsh is being misread, with pushback unwarranted as he drives reform. The jobs report poses a new test for Warsh and the Fed, as investors increasingly expect rate hikes as soon as next month. Wellington Funds have pivoted from Treasuries to German bonds, citing doubts about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credentials.
Currencies & Foreign Exchange
The dollar ended the week at its lowest since May as rate-hike bets faded. It hit a 7-week low after the weak U.S. jobs data. The yen jumped 1% against the dollar after the jobs report, sparking speculation of intervention. Hedge funds slashed yen short bets after U.S.-Japan joint efforts stabilized the currency. Japan confirmed a three-day yen intervention in spring to lift the yen. Goldman Sachs is skeptical that U.S. support for the yen will threaten dollar dominance. Currency interventions have a mixed record, and the yen intervention illustrates the dangers of monetary experiments. The real reason behind Trump’s yen intervention may be geopolitical, not economic. The U.S. bare its financial weak spot via intervention.
Emerging Asia is finding ways to support currencies without dipping into reserves, as tensions in the Middle East persist. India’s forex reserves are expected to rise to a near-record high on stronger capital inflows.
Commodities & Energy
Global food prices rose in July to the highest in over three years, driven by heatwaves and conflict. Copper is tightening fast, with a surge in shipments to the U.S. and rising Chinese orders setting the stage for a rally to all-time highs. The metal headed for a record close in London on tight supply. China’s steel price hit a near-decade low as a property slump sapped demand. Some Chinese iron ore buyers stopped dealing with traders Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals.
In energy, Iran’s oil exports have stalled under a U.S. blockade, with Kharg Island idle. The diesel squeeze is setting the stage for a winter crunch. U.S. natural gas futures extended losses to seven weeks as strong production offset demand. Cuba is low on oil and counting on solar with China’s help. Indonesia, one of the world’s biggest coal producers, battles to keep lights on as price controls discourage supply. Union workers at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore hub began rolling strikes. Romania extended reactor output after Danube blasts raised water flow. The solar eclipse threatens to tighten Europe’s electricity squeeze. Soybean trade disruption from tariffs was called “tortuous” by a Chinese diplomat. Refine, baby, refine is the energy industry’s new mantra as fuel-makers max out.
Derivatives, Structured Products & Market Structure
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks. Wall Street’s risk complex is surging anew despite a catalogue of complaints. Bank of America’s sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, prompting strategists to recommend reducing exposure. India’s new auction system for closing stock prices faced a shaky first week. The worst Brazil market outage put B3’s near-monopoly in focus.
In credit markets, private credit funds report liquidity differently, with some using aggressive math. Private credit is being squeezed as highly-indebted companies ditch expensive loans for cheaper bank capital. Gainwell Technologies began the year’s biggest software refinancing with a $5.8 billion debt overhaul. Allianz Trade cut cover for UK housebuilder Vistry’s suppliers.
IPOs, Corporate Finance & M&A
SpaceX saw a $300 billion swing in market value, testing Elon Musk’s ability to execute promises. The stock neared its IPO price again after a $327 billion rally. Greg Abel finally put Buffett’s cash pile to work, ending a more-than-three-year selling streak by net-ploughing $20 billion into stocks. Berkshire – already used.
China’s CICC dominates the country’s AI listings bonanza. Moonshot is targeting a Hong Kong IPO after a shake-up. Allianz posted a record operating profit despite a portfolio reshuffle. Apollo’s upmarket plans for easy Jet include premium seats and extra services. The UK IPO slump is hurting private equity and venture capital exits. Britain’s incoming CEOs are enjoying a “new boss bounce” as they revive FTSE stalwarts. Porsche SE called for faster Volkswagen overhaul after a $3.5 billion impairment. The UK manages a record share of assets for overseas clients, dispelling worries about London’s status. Shanghai seeks to extend commercial land leases. Canada’s PSP mulls a $1.5 billion sale of roads in India.
Cryptocurrency & Fintech
A tough week for crypto had fans downing drinks at a Bitcoin bar. A landmark crypto bill stalled in the U.S. Senate despite a $225 million lobbying push. Trump crypto took $100 million from a businessman with red flags. A fintech that soared on a Trump deal sold its core business for $12 million.
Trade, Growth & Inflation
China’s inflation cooled more than expected in July, with both consumer and factory-gate price growth easing. The oil shock from the Iran war started to fade, but domestic demand remained tepid. U.S. consumer brands report stronger overseas sales than domestic. The Philippine economy grew at its slowest pace since 2009 (excluding Covid). Asian carmakers are cashing in as high petrol prices lift U.S. demand for hybrids. America’s electric honeymoon is over, with EV owners returning to hybrids or gas cars. The labor market shifted into reverse as employers balked at hiring. El Niño threatens to disrupt the world’s most-traded commodities.
Market Commentary & Geopolitical Risks
Situational Awareness bet $400 million on a stealth chip startup after an AI crash. New intelligence warns Russia may provoke NATO amid dwindling U.S. munitions. The U.S. is burning through weapons in the Iran war. Hungary warned of a “dramatic” economic hit from drought and nuclear outage. Yemen teeters on civil war as the Hormuz stalemate looms. Iran’s demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz include U.S. withdrawal. The Houthis claimed an attack on a Yemeni military camp, killing.
After the great deleveraging, markets brace for momentum. A short history of valuing stocks may not protect against the next crisis. The bond market is signaling rising risks – link used earlier, must avoid duplicate. Actually link used in Fixed Income. Replace with different link? We have already used once. Need to check all links used. We'll ensure each URL only once. We'll re-check after writing. Let's continue drafting and then audit.
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Blockbuster earnings from the U.S.’s largest companies have helped ease worries about AI spending and inflationary pressures, bolstering stocks’ record run. Stock funds are up 10.6% so far in 2026 despite a turbulent month that saw tech stocks zip about on AI expectations. All three major U.S. indexes notched fresh records after a weak jobs report eased rate-hike fears, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capping their best week since April. The rally on surprise job losses was driven by expectations that the Fed will hold off on raising rates, as weak payroll data showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder argued the contraction reflects a “productivity revolution” rather than weakness, with AI helping buoy GDP even as hiring slows. Still, the weak jobs report does not eliminate the prospect of an interest rate rise, as the Fed remains focused on inflation.
In Europe, strong earnings have lifted the gloom from the Iran war, with companies in the Stoxx 600 on track for a 22% profit increase in Q2. European stocks are firing on all cylinders and drawing money managers who see this rally as durable. The benchmark rose for a fourth week as M&A chatter lifted regional benchmarks to fresh records. UK shares also surged, with FTSE 100 funds up 4% in a week.
In Asia, Japan’s GPIF posted a record $152 billion gain in Q2 on the global stock rally. India’s top bank, State Bank of India, beat profit estimates, sending shares higher. However, shadow lender Bajaj Finance led declines as the RBI tightened loan rules. South Korea’s volatility spike ebbed after a historic selloff flushed out leveraged positions. Samsung was added by Lazard’s $9.6 billion fund during the memory rout. In China, Unitree Robotics priced an IPO to raise about $900 million, testing investor appetite for humanoid robots.
Fixed Income & Central Banks
Treasury yields fell after July’s job losses, with the 10-year dropping as the market priced out rate hikes. Scott Bessent is sending signals that he’s eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher, according to Wall Street traders. The bond market is signaling rising risks for home buyers, AI data centers and the stock market, though it also benefits retirees. US Treasury auction cutbacks have sparked a debate on whether reducing supply can temper yields.
In Japan, the 15-year JGB yield presents a curiosity—maybe not as high as you think. Research suggests the neutral rate has moved up slightly. Japan’s biggest insurers reported $96 billion in bond paper losses in Q2, showing risks from rising interest rates. Covenant shelter bonds are surging as lower-rated Japanese borrowers turn to the market.
Trump restarted his battle to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sending a letter saying it is “considering” removal. Fed Chair Warsh is being misread, with pushback unwarranted as he drives reform. The jobs report poses a new test for Warsh and the Fed, as investors increasingly expect rate hikes as soon as next month. Wellington Funds have pivoted from Treasuries to German bonds, citing doubts about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credentials.
Currencies & Foreign Exchange
The dollar ended the week at its lowest since May as rate-hike bets faded. It hit a 7-week low after the weak U.S. jobs data. The yen jumped 1% against the dollar after the jobs report, sparking speculation of intervention. Hedge funds slashed yen short bets after U.S.-Japan joint efforts stabilized the currency. Japan confirmed a three-day yen intervention in spring to lift the yen. Goldman Sachs is skeptical that U.S. support for the yen will threaten dollar dominance. Currency interventions have a mixed record, and the yen intervention illustrates the dangers of monetary experiments. The real reason behind Trump’s yen intervention may be geopolitical, not economic. The U.S. bare its financial weak spot via intervention.
Emerging Asia is finding ways to support currencies without dipping into reserves, as tensions in the Middle East persist. India’s forex reserves are expected to rise to a near-record high on stronger capital inflows.
Commodities & Energy
Global food prices rose in July to the highest in over three years, driven by heatwaves and conflict. Copper is tightening fast, with a surge in shipments to the U.S. and rising Chinese orders setting the stage for a rally to all-time highs. The metal headed for a record close in London on tight supply. China’s steel price hit a near-decade low as a property slump sapped demand. Some Chinese iron ore buyers stopped dealing with traders Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals.
In energy, Iran’s oil exports have stalled under a U.S. blockade, with Kharg Island idle. The diesel squeeze is setting the stage for a winter crunch. U.S. natural gas futures extended losses to seven weeks as strong production offset demand. Cuba is low on oil and counting on solar with China’s help. Indonesia, one of the world’s biggest coal producers, battles to keep lights on as price controls discourage supply. Union workers at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore hub began rolling strikes. Romania extended reactor output after Danube blasts raised water flow. The solar eclipse threatens to tighten Europe’s electricity squeeze. Soybean trade disruption from tariffs was called “tortuous” by a Chinese diplomat. Refine, baby, refine is the energy industry’s new mantra as fuel-makers max out.
Derivatives, Structured Products & Market Structure
The leveraged ETF boom is creating new ways to profit from sudden bursts of volatility in tech stocks. Wall Street’s risk complex is surging anew despite a catalogue of complaints. Bank of America’s sentiment gauge hit its most extreme bullish level since 2021, prompting strategists to recommend reducing exposure. India’s new auction system for closing stock prices faced a shaky first week. The worst Brazil market outage put B3’s near-monopoly in focus.
In credit markets, private credit funds report liquidity differently, with some using aggressive math. Private credit is being squeezed as highly-indebted companies ditch expensive loans for cheaper bank capital. Gainwell Technologies began the year’s biggest software refinancing with a $5.8 billion debt overhaul. Allianz Trade cut cover for UK housebuilder Vistry’s suppliers.
IPOs, Corporate Finance & M&A
SpaceX saw a $300 billion swing in market value, testing Elon Musk’s ability to execute promises. The stock neared its IPO price again after a $327 billion rally. Greg Abel finally put Buffett’s cash pile to work, ending a more-than-three-year selling streak by net-ploughing $20 billion into stocks.
China’s CICC dominates the country’s AI listings bonanza. Moonshot is targeting a Hong Kong IPO after a shake-up. Allianz posted a record operating profit despite a portfolio reshuffle. Apollo’s upmarket plans for easy Jet include premium seats and extra services. The UK IPO slump is hurting private equity and venture capital exits. Britain’s incoming CEOs are enjoying a “new boss bounce” as they revive FTSE stalwarts. Porsche SE called for faster Volkswagen overhaul after a $3.5 billion impairment. The UK manages a record share of assets for overseas clients, dispelling worries about London’s status. Shanghai seeks to extend commercial land leases. Canada’s PSP mulls a $1.5 billion sale of roads in India.
Cryptocurrency & Fintech
A tough week for crypto had fans downing drinks at a Bitcoin bar. A landmark crypto bill stalled in the U.S. Senate despite a $225 million lobbying push. Trump crypto took $100 million from a businessman with red flags. A fintech that soared on a Trump deal sold its core business for $12 million.
Trade, Growth & Inflation
China’s inflation cooled more than expected in July, with both consumer and factory-gate price growth easing. The oil shock from the Iran war started to fade, but domestic demand remained tepid. U.S. consumer brands report stronger overseas sales than domestic. The Philippine economy grew at its slowest pace since 2009 (excluding Covid). Asian carmakers are cashing in as high petrol prices lift U.S. demand for hybrids. America’s electric honeymoon is over, with EV owners returning to hybrids or gas cars. The labor market shifted into reverse as employers balked at hiring. El Niño threatens to disrupt the world’s most-traded commodities.
Market Commentary & Geopolitical Risks
Situational Awareness bet $400 million on a stealth chip startup after an AI crash. New intelligence warns Russia may provoke NATO amid dwindling U.S. munitions. The U.S. is burning through weapons in the Iran war. Hungary warned of a “dramatic” economic hit from drought and nuclear outage. Yemen teeters on civil war as the Hormuz stalemate looms. Iran’s demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz include U.S. withdrawal. The Houthis claimed an attack on a Yemeni military camp, killing.
After the great deleveraging, markets brace for momentum. A short history of valuing stocks may not protect against the next crisis.