Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Middle East Conflict Fuels Oil Price Surge and Market Volatility

Oil futures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, prompting haven flows into the dollar and pushing U.S. Treasury yields to 2026 highs. Brent crude’s climb above $100 threatens a prolonged inflationary surge and a resetting of interest rate expectations. Russia’s warning that its Black Sea waters are unsafe for ships following Ukrainian attacks further disrupted energy markets. Despite the immediate price jump, futures contracts reflect an expectation of future price drops, with traders betting on a potential easing of tensions with Iran driven by low inventories and midterm elections. Dow Inc. indicated that Middle East tensions could boost its profits by increasing prices for plastics and packaging without raising material costs, while also reporting. Three supertankers carrying approximately 6 million barrels of crude, navigating potential Iranian attacks. Asian oil buyers are in talks with Saudi Aramco to reroute flows around Africa, as Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea had hit record volumes before the Houthi warning of potential blockades. The ongoing conflict has also led to a global diesel shortage, risking food supplies as farmers are deprived of fuel for irrigation pumps. European gas prices are approaching Iran war highs as traders worry about winter supplies, exacerbated by heatwaves and competition with Asian buyers. U.S. refiners are ramping up diesel production to near-record levels to address the growing global shortage triggered by the Russia and Iran wars.

AI Spending and Tech Sector Performance Under Scrutiny

Shares of Tesla tumbled 11% after discounts impacted profits, with capital expenditures more than doubling as the company accelerates its pivot to AI and robots. Despite a rebound in car sales, Tesla’s profit. Google set pace, again raising its projections for artificial intelligence investments, though many on Wall Street remain concerned about the eventual payoff and its impact on the open web. STMicroelectronics doubts over, with its third-quarter sales forecast missing analysts’ expectations, leading to a share price slump of over 15%. Nokia continues ride, capitalizing on surging demand as supply constraints push clients towards longer-term orders. Investors are becoming pickier with their AI power plays as the market navigates AI investments. BlackRock sees potential, advocating for European corporate bonds despite their tight spreads. Meanwhile, GCM Grosvenor, while Blackstone’s profit surged on AI investments, with stronger inflows into its private-equity business offsetting a slowdown in private credit. The EU in a test of Trump’s threats to protect Big Tech, with the bloc’s competition chief stating it is their "duty to defend rule of law."

Economic Indicators and Corporate Earnings Show Mixed Signals

U.S. stocks retreated as worries about artificial-intelligence spending weighed on sentiment, while oil prices hit $100 a barrel for the first time in two months. Investors are pinning their hopes for a second-half stock market breakout on corporate earnings, a key pillar of the current bull run. U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the year, leading to bets that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates. The euro extended its losses after the ECB kept rates steady, refraining from providing hints about future rate hikes, although the central bank later paused rates at 2.25% despite the renewed surge in oil prices. Canada's retail sales, increasing 1.0% in May to C$73.71 billion. First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level since 1969, signaling muted layoffs in a stable labor market according to the latest jobs data. Tractor Supply cut its outlook following a tough quarter, now expecting sales to rise 2.5% to 3.5% this year, down from a prior forecast of 4% to 6%. Albertsons is anticipating a sales decline this year as grocery shoppers tighten their budgets. American Airlines cut its guidance after a surge in jet fuel prices, expecting an adjusted loss in the current quarter. Honeywell Technologies amid restructuring, while PG&E recorded a profit on flat revenue as its costs declined. Comcast reported a lower profit but narrowed domestic broadband subscriber losses for the second consecutive quarter driven by its broadband business.

Global Trade and Geopolitical Dealings Under Strain

The Trump administration’s dealings in companies is on shaky ground, with clearer rules needed for when the U.S. government takes equity stakes in various businesses. Trump has thrown a controversial U.S.-Saudi Arabia nuclear pact into doubt, with the Crown Prince insisting any rapprochement with Israel depends on steps towards establishing a Palestinian state. The U.S. dollar jumped haven as the war in the Middle East intensified. Russia warned that its Black Sea waters were unsafe for ships amid escalating attacks by Ukraine. India is seeking to expand investment options for its portfolio managers allowing them to invest in overseas securities, with proposals to allow unhedged short bets in equity derivatives. Hong Kong and Malaysia will collaborate to expand cross-market access and deepen cross-border participation. The pound’s rally is at risk due to the new UK government's unclear fiscal plans and potential for fewer interest-rate hikes. The ECB kept interest rates on hold as expected, stating its energy price outlook remains "close" to June projections. The U.S.-Saudi deal has prompted fears of a nuclear arms race in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as countries seek nuclear capabilities to hedge against aggressive neighbors and a receding Washington.

Corporate Dealmaking and Sector-Specific Developments

Movie theaters are embracing the lucrative business of buckets, with “collectible concession vessels” potentially generating over $100 million for one chain. UniCredit raised its profit targets but saw its second-quarter net profit hurt by a one-off hit related to its offer for Commerzbank. McCormick & Co. has chosen London for a secondary listing, months after agreeing to combine with Unilever Plc’s food business, a move that disappoints Amsterdam’s ambitions. Victoria Plc secured enough bondholder support for a debt restructuring after HSBC Holdings Plc backed the plan at the last minute. TPG Asia Real Estate plans to sell a Tokyo hotel property to Japan Hotel REIT Investment Co. amid a tourism boom. Ford hopes a tie-up with China’s Geely will revive its European business, forming a manufacturing joint venture at the U.S. group’s Valencia plant for its European operations. Eni will buy a European fuel service station business from Prax through its Enilive subsidiary, co-owned with KKR for an undisclosed sum. Frasers says its stake in Hugo Boss tops 30% after recent acquisitions, with less than a week remaining for its $2.2 billion offer to take full ownership of the German company.