European gas prices have jumped nearly 50% in the past month, with the Dutch TTF contract climbing above €62 per megawatt hour and UK prices rising to 148.75p per therm. Heatwaves have pushed demand for air‑conditioning and forced parts of France’s nuclear fleet to cut output, boosting gas‑fired power use.

The surge mirrors concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, where a US‑Iran conflict has slowed traffic and traders fear a tightening supply before winter. Meanwhile, Asia is drawing LNG cargoes at higher prices, leaving France with only 13 LNG shipments in July and 26 expected in August after recent diversions.

Germany’s storage facilities are only 45% full, far below the 70% target for the winter, raising the risk of price swings. Equinor’s CFO Torgrim Reitan warned that unmet storage goals could expose the market to sharp moves.

The International Energy Agency cautions that further delays in Gulf exports could keep gas markets tight for longer, while Rystad expects 以下