Tensions between the US and Iran have partially closed the Hormuz Strait, pushing European gas prices up 30 per cent in a month and leaving storage just above half full versus the usual 60%.

The market previously absorbed a 20 per cent loss of global LNG during the Iran war; Wood Mackenzie estimates over half was offset by new US projects, while Asian demand fell and Europe delayed filling storage.

The International Energy Agency says a quick resumption would erase the impact, but traffic is slowing again and a cold winter could add 20bn cubic metres of demand, forcing Europe and Asia to compete for LNG, driving up power bills and giving US firms a cost advantage.