European natural gas prices could surge 130% to $25 per million British thermal units if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for one month, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts. The analysts, including Daan Struyven, warned that benchmarks in Europe and Asia have barely priced in risks tied to potential disruptions from Iran.

About a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, mainly from Qatar, passes through this critical chokepoint. A month-long halt could trigger dramatic price spikes across Europe and spot Asian markets. The analysts cautioned that a longer disruption lasting more than two months could push European prices above €100/MWh, forcing significant global demand destruction as industries cut consumption.

The impact on US natural gas would likely be limited, Goldman said. The United States operates as a large net exporter of superchilled fuel, with liquefaction plants typically running at full capacity, leaving little room to increase shipments to offset the shortfall.