Investors who spent weeks watching US stocks go nowhere are pinning their hopes for a breakout on a key pillar of the four-year bull run: corporate earnings. The S&P 500 has stalled near record highs, leaving traders searching for a catalyst to extend the rally into the second half of the year.

With the Federal Reserve's rate-cut timeline uncertain, market participants are focusing on second-quarter results to gauge whether profit growth can justify elevated valuations. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to climb about 10% year-over-year, a pace that would support further gains if realized.

However, any disappointment could deepen the recent pullback, as positioning remains crowded in megacap technology shares. The coming weeks will test whether the bull market can sustain its momentum on fundamentals alone.

Historically, earnings season has provided the volatility needed to break summer lulls. This year, the concentration of gains in a handful of AI-driven stocks raises the stakes, as broad participation remains elusive. A strong showing across sectors could broaden the advance, while misses may trigger a deeper correction.