Last updated: September 16, 2026, 2:00 PM ET
Fed Decision Looms Over Global Markets
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates on Wednesday for the first time in this cycle, with markets putting the odds at roughly 94%. Bond traders have piled into bearish positions ahead of the decision, while a separate read shows traders convinced the central bank will follow through. The move comes despite surging borrowing costs that have already raised mortgage and car-loan expenses. President Trump has threatened to halt trade if the Fed proceeds, adding political pressure to an already fraught decision. The Fed's credibility with bond investors will be tested if it opts against hiking. For households, the decision carries direct financial consequences across savings, loans and investments. Reading the Fed's projections like a pro requires attention to the dot plot and statement language. The decision-day guide notes the Fed is hiking in defiance of presidential pressure.
Treasury Yields and the Bond Selloff
The 10-year Treasury yield breached 5%, a post-financial-crisis high that has reshaped borrowing economics across the globe. The benchmark hit 5.04% amid inflation concerns and expectations of higher rates. Yields reached their highest since 2007 as intensifying oil prices compounded fixed-income stress. The global bond selloff deepened as 10-year yields hit multiyear highs ahead of the Fed. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chairman Warsh are taking on the bond bears, facing similar tests in calming markets. Bessent defended his intervention before Congress, saying he supported giving the Fed room to act. UK long bonds are struggling even as the government sells less debt, with yields near 6%. Indian bonds are feeling the heat from the global yield surge, with RBI bond sales adding upward pressure. A broader FT analysis asks whether AI debt rivals Treasuries in the bond market shake-up.
Equities: US and Global
US stocks halted their slide before the Fed call, with stocks and Treasuries finding relief after days of selling. Earlier, US equities fell sharply as the oil and yield shock continued ahead of the decision. The Dow led modest declines as the 10-year yield hovered near 5%. Stock futures held steady as cautious optimism heralded Fed day. European shares snapped two days of losses as oil eased and banks gained. But investor fatigue is growing as Europe's rally becomes more concentrated. In Asia, the Nikkei slipped 0.2% on chip-related losses, while Korean stocks saw turnover shrink to its lowest this year. Turkish stocks tumbled as an asset manager's failure to meet redemptions spread liquidity concerns. Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's biggest bulls, cut his S&P 500 target to 7,900 on downturn risks. Unloved consumer names like Walmart face pressure as the rate hike draws near. Polish equities have further to run as new investors pour cash in, according to a UniCredit banker.
Oil, Gas and Commodities
Oil pared its gains but remained above $100 a barrel amid Middle East supply concerns. Crude declined but stayed elevated as geopolitical risks persisted. Prices edged lower but remained near four-month highs ahead of the Fed. Oil retreated as traders assessed supply damages in the Middle East. US crude stockpiles posted a moderate draw, falling for a third consecutive week. Natural gas futures extended gains for a third session on warmer-for-longer weather. European gas pared gains after Germany's SEFE said it received no storage order. Gold rose as traders weighed the oil decline before the Fed decision, though the metal's descent continued on rate-hike expectations. Copper edged higher as Treasury yields eased before the Fed. Chinese oil prices hit record highs after attacks on a Saudi pipeline. Global oil prices could hit their highest in months after the pipeline attacks. Saudi Arabia is ramping up prompt sales from outside the Strait of Hormuz after the pipeline shutdown. Asian refiners are dusting off their early Iran-war playbook as oil jumps. The Kremlin is pushing exporters to maintain Russia's wheat export lead amid Black Sea disruptions. China's fuel inventories are plunging, raising the chance of export curbs. Venezuela is preparing to ship 15,000 tons of aluminum to the US via a Mercuria deal.
Energy Costs and the Consumer
Americans have spent $100 billion more on fuel during the Iran war, with higher gasoline and diesel prices forcing families to save less. US retail sales rebounded 1.2% last month, versus a 0.5% decrease in July, in a show of consumer strength. But businesses are struggling to set prices amid uncertain energy costs. Companies are split on whether to raise prices now as energy costs surge. Median household income rose to a record $87,460 in 2025, with the poverty rate stable before safety-net cuts gained force. UK inflation pushed higher in August almost exclusively due to higher energy prices. Fuel riots spread around the world as Trump approved a $2.8 billion arms sale to Israel. The world economy is becoming wary of US dollar dominance as America's position of stability looks shakier.
Deals and Corporate News
Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Fidelity are among major investors that participated in NSE's $703 million anchor book. Brookfield agreed to a $2.9 billion acquisition of Australia's Reliance, firming its US$3.38-a-share proposal. KKR emerged as the preferred bidder to buy Portuguese packaging maker Logoplaste. Sazerac is in talks to acquire German schnapps maker Berentzen-Gruppe. Blackstone is seeking at least $8 billion for its private credit green infrastructure fund. Apollo provided $585 million of financing to flexible workspace provider The Executive Centre. A court barred Ardagh from selling its metals packaging unit. The SEC moved to scrap rules governing shareholder proxy proposals. Congressional Democrats took aim at private equity's role in medicine with a bill backed by Sen. Warren and Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. The RBI rejected a Tata Sons IPO waiver, backing a reclusive tycoon's long-running ask. India's Tata group is being forced into a $120bn listing against its will. Oaktree sees credit investors finally being paid to take risk.
Corporate Earnings and Operations
Amazon boosted minimum pay for US full-time core operations staff to $20/hour, a $1-per-hour increase. Reckitt, the maker of Lysol and Mucinex, is expanding US manufacturing with a $400 million investment in a North Carolina plant and New Jersey campus. United and American Airlines warned of capacity cuts as fuel costs surge. Morrisons reported its biggest sales increase in more than a year on hot summer weather and the World Cup. WH Smith expects profit at the bottom of its guidance range on weaker margins. PwC UK revenues fell 3% to £6.2bn, the first drop in 20 years, as its Middle East consulting business slumped. Vodafone took up to a €1.1bn hit from Patrick Drahi's German broadband deal. Nissan will invest £170mn to build a new hybrid SUV at its Sunderland plant. McLaren is launching its first SUV to compete with Lamborghini and Ferrari. CATL shares dropped 10% in two days amid outlook concerns.
AI, Tech and Venture Capital
OpenAI is considering new financing at a $1.5 trillion valuation, which would double the Chat GPT maker's value. A separate report says OpenAI weighs a funding round at a $1.2tn valuation before IPO. Inside OpenAI's ad push, the company is adding tools to woo top advertisers. Nvidia and Meta bosses rejected efforts to coordinate an AI slowdown, with Jensen Huang and Mark Zuckerberg distancing themselves from safety proposals. Zuckerberg took aim at Anthropic in the debate over AI slowdown. An AI antitrust exemption would invite collusion, argues a WSJ opinion piece. AI leaders' safety push sparked an internal rift at OpenAI and Anthropic. The "liftoff scenario" of recursive self-improvement terrifies AI doomsayers. Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders condemned tech oligarchs and demanded AI reforms. Silicon Valley hardware is having a moment again as venture capital flows into deep tech. Databricks is piling investments into Asia as growth accelerates. Apple finally built a smarter Siri but still trails the AI race. Software and platform stocks topped Asian AI picks in a Bof A survey. An AI out-of-office reply cost one company $10,000 a day. The quiet way AI is hitting the workforce shows up as lower wage growth and slower hiring. A Times/Siena poll finds AI is not yet a national political issue. Trump's AI data center posts drew rare backlash on Truth Social. The debate on AI regulation has drawn unlikely political allies. Marketers are navigating build-or-buy decisions in the AI era.
Crypto and Digital Assets
A landmark crypto bill failed a procedural vote, casting doubt on new digital-asset rules. The bill's defeat in the Senate over Trump ethics concerns is a massive setback for an industry that has spent record sums lobbying. Bitcoin traded at $75,491 after falling around 4% a day earlier to a four-week low. Strategy Inc.'s flagship preferred security is a whisker away from its original par after buybacks. Coin Ex, a crypto exchange that was a hub for illicit Iran cash, abruptly closed less than three months after a WSJ report.
Geopolitics and Trade
The US and China are discussing cutting some tariffs as leaders prepare to meet, solidifying prospects for a trade truce extension. The EU offered to make Canada an "associate member" as US ties weaken for both. Trump lifted Venezuela's narco status and said Colombia may follow. Trump barred some South Africans over claims of anti-white discrimination. The US fast-tracked the deportation of Ecuadorean politician José Serrano despite torture fears. The House voted to halt the Iran war or seek congressional approval, the fifth such vote. The Pentagon Inspector General detailed US losses in the Iran war. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the war has cost $38 billion. A separate FT report says the war has cost the US $38bn and caused a munitions shortfall. Trump approved a $2.8 billion arms sale to Israel, including 40,000 one-ton bombs. The Houthis said they downed a Saudi fighter jet and denied targeting Mecca. An opinion piece asks who will stop the Houthis as they threaten to block Saudi oil exports from the Red Sea. Yemen's Houthi militia controls key shipping routes, giving it outsized leverage. The US is pressuring Mexico to box out China's AI hardware exports. US billionaires are bankrolling the Republican push in the 2026 midterms. Trump's super PACs are spending $138 million to save midterm Republicans.
International Markets and Policy
Romania is set to curb its €10 billion foreign debt sale plan this year amid political turmoil. Investors are looking past Romania risk to pocket junk-like yields. Senegal joined JPMorgan's list of African frontiers set for a new bond index. Hong Kong set out a gold hub plan to boost commodities and yuan use. Hong Kong property and tech firms may get a boost from the Chief Executive's new five-year plan. The Hong Kong stock exchange is considering launching its first-ever bond index before end-2026. Hong Kong pledged to accelerate a technology hub near mainland China. Japan's export growth slowed to 1.93% while remaining elevated on a chip surge. Vietnam warned of blackouts from 2027 as power projects stutter. New Zealand's parliament passed legislation enabling a free-trade agreement with India. New Zealand's Superannuation Fund returned 14.2%, one of the world's top-performing sovereign funds. The NZ Super Fund grew 14% despite being underweight US tech. RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk will step down in December. New Zealand dairy farmers face a profit squeeze as El Niño looms. The PBOC chief is unfazed by the credit slump as the era of surging loans ends. HSBC and ICICI propelled India's finance hub with FX loans for the diaspora. India's SEBI eased arbitrage fund rules to aid an auction. Zambia's stock market will debut a gold ETF and sees five stock listings. Uganda's shilling slumped to a two-year low on surging FX demand. Monaco, Bulgaria and Ivory Coast are poised to exit a global financial watchdog's dirty-money list. Canada's Carney pitched Canada as a haven of investment stability in a chaotic world.
Regulation, Legal and Society
The EU proposed barring children under 13 from social media across the 27-nation bloc. A separate FT report says the EU will restrict social media and chatbots for children under, with Ursula von der Leyen calling AI the "second tipping point of our time." The FCA warned firms on ethics after the Odey ban, introducing stricter rules. A hedge fund warned an ousted lawyer to settle a £36bn BHP dam collapse claim. The UK Chancellor is eyeing a budget tax raid on high-stake slot machines. Burnham is considering a plan to give mayors greater oversight of water companies. Ørsted's boss said Europe must act against "unfair" Chinese wind turbine makers. UK government advisers warned Heathrow expansion is incompatible with climate goals. Sullivan & Cromwell launched a private equity practice, hiring a team from Kirkland & Ellis. Hugo Boss named Frasers' Michael Murray as supervisory board chairman. Dario Vitale, the ousted Versace designer, landed at Emporio Armani. A separate report confirmed his appointment as Emporio Armani creative director. The Missoni family exited and the brand restructured after faltering. A data center's 5,000-gallon diesel spill in Secaucus, NJ, forced a river cleanup. The US is probing cyberattacks on energy tankers bound for the American coast. Revolut handed customer data to a scammer and now faces a shakedown. Federal employees were paid $9.5 billion not to work in 2025 under the DOGE effort. The IRS won't say how much in taxes goes unpaid under Trump. Pennsylvania officials reported a fourth measles death as the outbreak grows. Turkey began a broad crackdown on the LGBTQ community. A news helicopter crash and bus accident in Los Angeles left at least five dead. The crash underscored the risks of aerial reporting. A teacher discovered rare T. rex footprints in North Dakota. Scientists grew human brain tissue in mice for the first time. New research suggests massive black holes may have started as little red dots. Scientists are testing new navigation systems to end GPS dependence. Nuclear fusion is facing a reality check amid hype. Exxon Mobil won Texas approval for a $5bn carbon capture project. The climate finance gap widens as rich countries face higher borrowing costs.
Media, Culture and Opinion
Fox is revamping Outkick following the exit of founder Clay Travis. TIFF is adding a market to expand its reputation beyond an Oscar launchpad. "60 Minutes" saw its season premiere ratings dip 21%, with just under 8 million viewers. Stephen Colbert returned to late night on "Jimmy Kimmel Live." Julia Louis-Dreyfus is ready to make a meal of Broadway after 40 years away. Annie Dillard, the meditative author of "Pilgrim at Tinker Creek," died at 81. The New York Times reflected on 175 years since its first issue. Business editor Ellen Pollock stepped down after nearly a decade. The Astor restaurant opened at the Public Theater, reviving the Astor family name. A wedding guests' guide offers advice on saying no as flights and hotels become customary expenses. The Kennedy Center closed its doors despite a judge's order. Trump threatened to cancel the Kennedy Center renovation. The Trump administration outlined a plan for signs outside a Smithsonian museum.
Opinion and Analysis
An FT column argues markets should discount the AI apocalypse, asking how investors should interpret labs' calls for a slowdown. A WSJ opinion piece says the aging press can show its value by finding the real story amid AI hype. Another argues humans are to blame for AI failures. A NYT opinion piece says Trump may not be entirely wrong about AI. Another argues it's already too late to stop the AI threat and that China and the US must repair the damage. The US and China are at odds on AI threats as technological rivalry makes cooperation harder. The GOP has gone off the deep end as its fringe becomes mainstream. A piece examines how Congress lost its way in the Trump era. An opinion piece argues that for Trump, Jews are proving to be a useful tool. Half of voters dislike socialism amid progressive wins, a new poll finds. A profile suggests JD Vance should get to know Andy Burnham, a Catholic politician model.
US Politics and Elections
The House killed a bid to impeach Trump as dozens of Democrats declined to register a position. Kash Patel suggested FBI agents could go to election polling sites, sparking Democratic alarm. A history of mail voting examines the Supreme Court and Postal Service. Aaron Guckian won the GOP nomination for Rhode Island governor. Bo French faces backlash over posts about University of Texas students. Dr. Nicole Saphier, Trump's surgeon general nominee, will appear before the Senate. Russians fear what could follow the election, bracing for mobilization and economic pain. A corruption case in Ukraine spawned memes and indignation. How 9/11 helped create regional clout for Iran. A piece examines what RFK Jr. gets wrong and right about antidepressants. Mothers' intrusive thoughts are mostly benign, with Lindsay Clancy's case an exception. Scrutiny of the jury may complicate the future of the Lindsay Clancy case. In China, some wonder if learning English is worth the trouble in the age of AI. A guide explains how to use AI for better travel planning. An FT reader asks about the risks of using AI to draft a will. Chinese restaurant chains are putting AI on the menu to cut food waste and labor costs. A column asks how Switzerland turned tax competition into a national sport. A profile examines the Fuggers, Europe's richest family ever. The unravelling of Missoni is detailed in an FT piece. A First FT newsletter notes US mega-donors overwhelmingly back Republicans. An FT piece examines the extended Farageverse coming together. The BoE's three balance sheet problem is explained. A piece argues "Buy British" military procurement is a poor way to defend the realm. The UK looks to "land drones" to transform beleaguered Ajax fighting vehicles. A hotter planet meets dearer money as the climate finance gap widens. Oura will struggle to justify its pulse-racing $16bn valuation. A piece examines how BlackRock plans to overhaul 401(k)s to resemble pensions. The volatile finances of airline pilots make them America's unpredictable millionaires. Security guards offer protection but get paid little in return. Jared Isaacman is using a decades-old playbook at NASA. A WSJ piece examines what CEOs really think about the AI apocalypse threat. A tech, media and telecom roundup covers OpenAI and Soitec. A Morning Risk Report notes the crypto bill's failure and US pressure on Mexico. Oil prices climbed higher as the 10-year yield briefly hit 2007 levels. Oil fell as Asian stocks rose, with crude remaining near multimonth highs. The Fed's guidance is key to Asian FX as currencies face further pressure. A Fed meeting preview notes markets are steady awaiting the decision, with the 10-year yield hovering around 5%. A Trump administration shift puts rare-disease biotech back in favor as FDA hard-liners depart. European stocks' new data tape needs to go deeper, industry groups say. A piece examines the unlikely political bedfellows on AI regulation. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell discuss "Wild Horse Nine". A piece examines Chinese restaurant chains putting AI on the menu.