The Kremlin is pushing wheat exporters and growers to maintain Russia’s geopolitical advantage as the top shipper of the grain, despite disruptions to ports in the Black Sea region. The agriculture ministry and Russia’s Grain Association held meetings with the country’s biggest grain exporters in August and September, telling them they must find ways to maintain the country’s global lead. Russia’s dominant position allows Moscow to not only earn revenues, but to use the flows to exert geopolitical pressure, reward allies, and punish adversaries.

The exit of the majority of big, western trading houses following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has allowed the Kremlin to further tighten its control over the industry. But despite Russian authorities seeking to reassure markets that the country will be able to maintain its usual export volumes, that may prove unrealistic. Russia has resorted to some unusual alternatives, including rail shipments to Baltic ports and the Far East, and is mulling scrapping export duties on wheat.

However, these measures are either too nascent or too pricey to replace the vast volumes typically shipped through the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports. Efforts to redirect shipments to Baltic ports have also caused rail bottlenecks, highlighting a "warning sign" for Russia’s preeminent position as a wheat exporter.