Wheat prices climbed to their highest level in three years on escalating tensions in the Black Sea, with Chicago contracts hitting $7.55 a bushel. Exports from the region have stalled due to strikes on grain-laden ships and export terminals, strangle shipments from one of the globe's most important grain-growing areas. Though supply remains healthy, grains are trapped as exporters seek alternative routes unlikely to offset lost port capacity at Odesa and Novorossiysk.

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for around a quarter of global wheat production. Exports have faltered since the Russia-Ukraine war began over two-and-a-half years ago, with levels falling dramatically in July as hostilities deepened. Prices jumped after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Russia refused a truce to halt attacks against grain ships.

Wheat is on track for its largest monthly gain since February 2022. El Nino-driven weather risks and the U.S.-Iran war are also driving prices higher. The International Grains Council downgraded its forecast for wheat production over 2026 to 2027, citing sustained heat in Europe.