Wheat advanced as a weaker outlook for Russian exports fueled concerns over global supplies, with Black Sea disruptions continuing to curtail shipments from the key grain-producing region. The most active wheat futures in Chicago rose as much as 0.7%, snapping a two-day decline, after Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR cut its 2026-27 wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tons from 42 million tons, Interfax reported. It also lowered its estimate for total grain exports to 49.5 million tons from 52.8 million tons.
Rail and Baltic routes, meanwhile, have limited spare capacity left, while disruptions have constrained traditional Black Sea routes, according to Futures International LLC. Russian exporters have increasingly turned to rail, Baltic ports and containers to bypass the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks. The scheduled closure of river navigation in mid-November could put further pressure on the rail network, tightening export availability and raising logistics costs heading into winter, the brokerage said in a note Thursday.
Moscow and Kyiv are set to hold trilateral talks with the US next week on a possible resolution to the crisis, which has severely impacted global grain trade and threatened supplies of a key staple across import-dependent countries in Asia and Africa. Attacks have continued despite efforts to broker a peace deal.
Sluggish US exports and competition from other suppliers are limiting gains, according to Futures International.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing