The Ukraine conflict has escalated, with both sides targeting 1,250km of the front line and now focusing on grain export routes. Ukraine has struck Russian vessels and key Black Sea terminals, including Novorossiysk, which ships more than 40% of Russian grain. Russia has retaliated with missile attacks on Ukrainian ports, threatening to halt both nations’ agricultural exports.

Together, Russia and Ukraine control 27% of global wheat supplies, and any significant disruption could push millions into acute food insecurity. The UN warns that climate factors alone could affect 50 million people; adding war‑related logistics risks a far greater crisis. While the Kremlin earned 41bn from grain in 2025 (less than 10% of total exports), Ukraine relies on grain for nearly half its revenue.

Countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia—especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, China, and India—have a vested interest in restoring चली grain flows. An international contact group could pressure both sides to reinstate the unspoken free‑passage agreement, potentially easing the war’s most dangerous spill‑over.