Europe faces its most precarious energy situation in 15 years as winter approaches, with natural gas reserves at just 68% capacity — 12 percentage points below last year and the lowest since 2011. Gas prices have surged to 80 euros per megawatt-hour, 150% higher than in February before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. While the eurozone economy has shown surprising resilience during the war in Iran, analysts warn this could change rapidly if cold weather forces countries to tap depleted reserves.

Italy's storage sits at 85% capacity, but Germany lags at 56%. Europe imports little gas directly from the Middle East but depends heavily on U.S. LNG shipments, which go to the highest bidder globally. "We don't have a lot of margin for a big additional shock," said Ángel Talavera, chief economist for Europe at Oxford Economics. The situation is "getting serious" but "nowhere near catastrophic." Storage operators gambled on summer price drops that never materialized as the conflict became protracted.

The European Central Bank recently raised growth forecasts citing "greater than expected resilience," but fears persist that a harsh winter could reverse gains, recalling the 2022 crisis when Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced factory shutdowns and billions in government subsidies.