A NASA safety panel estimates that 22 Starship launches will be required to support a lunar landing under the Artemis IV mission, citing numerous firsts and fueling challenges. While the estimate specifically refers to SpaceX’s Starship, it highlights the complexity of orbital refueling for the lander. Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander is not expected to use orbital refueling in its initial design.
The figure likely originated from discussions with NASA officials during quarterly safety reviews. After the estimate was shared on X, SpaceX founder Elon Musk disputed it, stating the actual number will be closer to 6 to 8 launches. The discrepancy stems from uncertainty over cryogenic propellant boil-off and transfer efficiency in orbit.
Despite the challenges, NASA continues to work toward a human lunar landing by 2028, with agency leadership focusing on removing barriers to accelerate the schedule. SpaceX is actively increasing its Starship flight rate, aiming for twice-weekly launches by the end of 2027, though even that pace would require about three months to fuel a depot for a single landing.
Source: Ars Technica · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing