CCC Debt Turns Distressed for First Time Since 2023 Crisis

CCC Debt Turns Distressed for First Time Since 2023 Bank Crisis Josie Reich The spread on the riskiest US corporate bonds has jumped above 1,000 basis points over Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023. That level of risk premium typically implies high probability of default, restructuring or loss. Debt that is rated CCC — the lowest tier of junk — traded at a spread of 1,007 basis points on Wednesday, up from 860 basis points at the start of September.

That’s the widest since March 2023, when investors dumped risky credit as a regional banking crisis took down Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. “The key driver is the economy is doing well but not necessarily going gangbusters,” said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. “Triple C rated issuers are the riskiest issuers out there, and they tend to be the most sensitive to changing interest rates.” CCC spreads have risen steadily since April as investors began anticipating the Federal Reserve’s pivot to tighten policy in a bid to tame inflation. Soaring global yields pressure highly levered borrowers by boosting debt service costs and making it harder to refinance, just as a large chunk of bonds and loans comes due. In addition, lower-rated companies tend to be smaller and therefore more exposed than bigger firms to the impact of inflation, particularly in energy prices.

If they can’t pass that on to consumers, profits get squeezed. “Historically, when the Fed hikes into higher energy prices bad things happen to the economy,” said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Not all CCC debt is suffering, though the distressed portion is weighing on that entire ratings bucket, according to Barclays Plc. More than half of the worst-performing CCCs are in the technology, media and telecommunications sectors, with cable and satellite companies the biggest laggards. “When we look at Triple Cs today, dispersion is very, very high,” said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC rated companies make up about 8.5% of the US high-yield index, down from 9.7% a year ago.

Spreads in higher-rated bonds have held relatively steady despite soaring global yields and slumping equities. “Even if there continues to be pain there, it doesn’t necessarily need to have a ripple effect to all high-yield bond investments,” Martin said, referring to CCCs.

أصبحت سندات CCC متعثرة لأول مرة منذ أزمة البنوك 2023. spread على السندات الأمريكية الأكثر خطورة فوق السندات الحكومية تجاوز 1,000 نقطة أساسية لأول مرة منذ أزمة البنوك الإقليمية في 2023. هذا المستوى من prima risk通常 implies high probability of default, restructuring or loss. السندات المصنفة CCC — أدنى فئة من السندات عالية المخاطر— تداولت عند spread of 1,007 نقطة أساسية يوم الأربعاء، صعودًا من 860 نقطة أساسية في بداية سبتمبر.这是最宽的范围 منذ March 2023، عندما المستثمرون threw risky credit as a regional banking crisis took down Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. "المحرك الرئيسي هو الاقتصاد يفعل جيدًا ولكن ليس بالضرورة أنه ينفجر," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "المصدرين مصنفين CCC هم المصدرين الأكثر خطورة، وهم الأكثر حساسية لتغير أسعار الفائدة." spreads of CCC have risen steadily since April as investors began anticipating the Federal Reserve's pivot to tighten policy in a bid to tame inflation. ارتفاع العوائد العالمية يضغط على المقترضين highly leveraged by boosting debt service costs and making it harder to refinance, just as a large chunk of bonds and loans comes due. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، الشركات ذات التصنيف المنخفض تميل إلى أن تكون أصغر وبالتالي أكثر تعرضًا لتأثير التضخم، particularly in energy prices. إذا لم تكن able to pass that on to consumers, profits get squeezed. "Historically, when the Fed hikes into higher energy prices bad things happen to the economy," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Not all CCC debt is suffering, although the distressed portion is weighing on that entire ratings bucket, according to Barclays Plc. More than half of the worst-performing CCCs are in the technology, media and telecommunications sectors, with cable and satellite companies the biggest laggards. "When we look at Triple Cs today, dispersion is very, very high," said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC rated companies make up about 8.5% of the US high-yield index, down from 9.7% a year ago.

Spreads in higher-rated bonds have held relatively steady despite soaring global yields and slumping equities. "Even if there continues to be pain there, it doesn't necessarily need to have a ripple effect to all high-yield bond investments," Martin said, referring to CCCs.

CCC债券2023年银行危机后首次转为困境。美国最危险的公司债券利差已逾越1,000个基点相对于国债。该风险溢价通常意味着高概率的违约、重组或损失。周三交易的CCC评级债券利差为1,007个基点，较9月初的860个基点上升。这是自2023年3月以来最宽的水平，当时投资者在区域银行危机导致硅谷银行和瑞信倒闭后抛售了有风险的信用。"关键驱动因素是经济状况良好，但未必一片大好," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "CCC评级发行者是最具风险的发行者，且对利率变动极为敏感。" CCC利差自4月以来持续上升，因为投资者开始预联邦储备委员会将通过紧缩政策来抑制通胀。全球债收益率飙升通过增加债务服务成本并使再融资变得更加困难，从而对高度杠杆的借款人施加压力，正好在大量债券和贷款到期之际。此外，评级较低的公司往往规模较小，因此比大型企业更易受通胀影响，特别是在能源价格。如果它们无法将这些成本转嫁给消费者，利润就会受到压缩。"历史上，当美联储在能源价格较高的情况下加息，经济往往会遭遇不良后果," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. 虽然并非所有CCC债券都在受苦，但根据巴克莱公司的说法，处于困境的部分正压低整个评级范围。最糟糕的CCC债券中超过一半位于技术、媒体和电信领域，有线和卫星公司表现最差。"当我们今天看CCC时，分化非常非常高," said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC评级公司占美国高收益指数的约8.5%，较一年前的9.7%有所下降。尽管全球债收益率飙升、股票下跌，但高评级债券的利差相对稳定。"即使继续有痛苦，也不一定会波及所有高收益债券投资," Martin说，指的是CCC。

CCC-Anleihen sind erstmals seit der Bankkrise 2023 in Not. Der Spread auf die risikoreichsten US-Unternehmensanleihen ist über 1.000 Basispunkte über den Treasuries gestiegen, erstmals seit der regionalen Bankkrise 2023. Dieses Risikoprämie impliziert typischerweise hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit von Default, Restrukturierung oder Verlust.

Schuldner mit CCC-Bewertung — die niedrigste Kategorie von High-Yield-Anleihen — wurden am Mittwoch bei einem Spread von 1.007 Basispunkte gehandelt, von 860 Basispunkten am Anfang des Septembers. Das ist das breiteste seit März 2023, als Anleger riskantes Credit verwarfen, als eine regionale Bankkrise Silicon Valley Bank und Credit Suisse zum Fall brachte. "Der Schlüsseltreiber ist die Wirtschaft geht es gut, aber nicht unbedingt boomt," sagte Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "CCC-bewertete Emittenten sind die risikoreichsten Emittenten da draußen, und sie neigen dazu, besonders empfindlich auf Zinsänderungen zu reagieren." CCC-Spreads sind seit April stetig gestiegen, da Investoren die Wende der Fed erwartet haben, um die Politik zu straffen, um die Inflation zu zügeln. Steigende globale Renditen üben Druck auf hochverschuldete Schuldner aus, indem sie die Dienstleistungskosten für die Schuld erhöuern und das Umlagenerschweren, genau in dem Moment, in dem ein großer Teil der Anleihen und Kredite fällig wird.

Darüber hinaus neigen Unternehmen mit niedrigerer Bewertung dazu, kleiner zu sein und daher stärker dem Einfluss von Inflation, insbesondere Energiepreisen, ausgesetzt zu sein. Wenn sie das nicht an Verbraucher weitergeben können, werden die Gewinne zusammengedrückt. "Historisch, wenn die Fed in höhere Energiepreise anhebt, passieren schlechte Dinge mit der Wirtschaft," sagte Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Nicht alle CCC-Anleiden leiden, obwohl der notleidende Teil das gesamte Bewertungskorb belastet, laut Barclays Plc. Mehr als die Hälfte der worst-performing CCCs sind in den Sektoren Technologie, Medien und Telekommunikation, wobei Kabel- und Satellitenunternehmen die größten Verlierer sind. "Wenn wir heute auf Triple Cs schauen, ist die Dispersion sehr, sehr hoch," sagte Corry Short, ein Strategist bei Barclays, wobei auf eine wachsende Differenz in der Performance nach Anleihe, Unternehmen und Sektor verwiesen wird.

CCC-bewertete Unternehmen machen etwa 8,5% des US-High-Yield-Index aus, gegenüber 9,7% vor einem Jahr. Spreads bei höher bewerteten Anleihen sind trotz steigender globaler Renditen und fallender Aktien relativ stabil geblieben. "Auch wenn dort weiterhin Schmerz ist, muss das nicht notwendigerweise einen Welleneffekt auf alle High-Yield-Anleihen-Investments haben," sagte Martin, und bezieht sich auf CCCs.

La deuda CCC se vuelve apalancada por primera vez desde la crisis bancaria de 2023. El spread sobre los bonos corporativos estadounidenses de mayor riesgo se ha disparado por encima de 1.000 puntos básicos sobre los Tesoros por primera vez desde la crisis bancaria regional de 2023. Ese nivel de prima de riesgo típicamente implica alta probabilidad de default, reestructuración o pérdida.

Los bonos calificados como CCC —el nivel más bajo de bonos basura— el miércoles negociaron a un spread de 1.007 puntos básicos, frente a 860 puntos básicos al inicio de septiembre. Es el más amplio desde marzo de 2023, cuando los inversores desecharon crédito arriesgado tras la crisis bancaria regional que dejó sin efecto al Silicon Valley Bank y Credit Suisse. "El motor principal es la economía va bien pero no necesariamente va a toda velocidad," dijo Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "Los emisores calificado como CCC son los emisores con mayor riesgo, y tienden a ser los más sensibles a la evolución de las tasas de interés." Los spreads de CCC han subido de forma constante desde abril, ya que los inversores comenzaron anticipando la Reserva Federal's pivot to tighten policy in a bid to tame inflation. Los rendimientos globales en aumento ejerce presión sobre los altamente apalancados prestatarios al incrementar los costos de servicio de la deuda y dificultar el reestructuramiento, justo cuando una gran porción de bonos y préstamos到期。此外， las empresas con calificación más baja tienden a ser más pequeñas y por lo tanto más expuestas al impacto de la inflación, particularmente en los precios de la energía.

Si no pueden trasladar esos costos a los consumidores, sus ganancias se aprietan. "Históricamente, cuando la Reserva Federal sube las tasas en un contexto de precios de energía altos, cosas malas le suceden a la economía," dijo Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. No todo el deuda CCC está sufriendo, aunque la parte en dificultades está pesando sobre todo ese bucket de calificaciones, según Barclays Plc. Más de la mitad de los peores desempeñándose CCCs están en los sectores de tecnología, medios y telecomunicaciones, con compañías de cable y satélite los mayores rezagados. "Cuando miramos los Triple Cs hoy, la dispersión es muy, muy alta," dijo Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. Las calificadas CCC empresas representan aproximadamente el 8.5% del índice de alto rendimiento estadounidense, frente al 9.7% hace un año.

Los spreads en bonos con calificación más alta se han mantenido relativamente estables a pesar de los rendimientos globales en aumento y la caída de las acciones. "Incluso si continúa habiendo dolor, no necesariamente necesita tener un efecto de onda sobre todas las inversiones en bonos de alto rendimiento," dijo Martin, refiriéndose a los CCC.

Les obligations CCC sont devenues distressed pour la première fois depuis la crise bancaire de 2023. L'écart sur les obligations corporatives américaines les plus risquées a franchi 1 000 points de base au-dessus des Trésors pour la première fois depuis la crise bancaire régionale de 2023. Ce niveau de risque premium implique généralement une haute probabilité de défaut, de restructuration ou de perte.

Les obligations notées CCC — le niveau le plus bas des obligations de junk — ont été négociées à un écart de 1 007 points de base mercredi, en hausse par rapport à 860 points de base au début septembre. C'est le plus large depuis mars 2023, lorsque les investisseurs ont jeté le crédit risqué alors qu'une crise bancaire régionale a entraîné la chute du Silicon Valley Bank et de Credit Suisse. "Le moteur principal est l'économie va bien mais pas nécessairement à toute vitesse," a déclaré Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "Les émetteurs notés CCC sont les émetteurs les plus risqués, et ils ont tendance à être les plus sensibles aux variations des taux d'intérêt." Les écarts de CCC ont augmenté de façon constante depuis avril, car les investisseurs ont commencé à anticiper le pivot de la Réserve fédérale pour resserrer une politique dans un but de maîtriser l'inflation. La hausse des rendements mondiaux exerce une pression sur les emprunteurs fortement endettés en augmentant les coûts de service de la dette et en rendant le raffinancement plus difficile, juste au moment où une grande partie des obligations et des prêts arrive à échéance.

De plus, les entreprises notées plus bas ont tendance à être plus petites et donc plus exposées à l'impact de l'inflation, particulièrement des prix de l'énergie. Si elles ne peuvent pas le transmettre aux consommateurs, leurs bénéfices se resserrent. "Historiquement, lorsque la Fed hausse les taux sur des prix de l'énergie élevés, de mauvaises choses arrivent à l'économie," a déclaré Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Toutes les obligations CCC ne souffrent pas, bien que la partie en difficulté pèse sur l'ensemble de cette catégorie de notation, selon Barclays Plc. Plus de la moitié des CCC les plus mauvais performants sont dans les secteurs technologie, média et télécommunications, les sociétés de câble et de satellite étant les plus grands perdants. "Lorsque nous regardons les Triple Cs aujourd'hui, la dispersion est très, très élevée," a déclaré Corry Short, un strategist at Barclays, en référence à une différence croissante de performance par obligation, entreprise et secteur.

Les entreprises notées CCC représentent environ 8,5 % de l'indice de haut rendement américain, contre 9,7 % il y a un an. Les écarts sur les obligations avec une note plus élevée sont restés relativement stables malgré la hausse des rendements mondiaux et la chute des actions. "Même s'il continue d'y avoir de la douleur, cela n'a pas forcément besoin d'avoir un effet d'entraînement sur toutes les investissements en obligations à haut rendement," a déclaré Martin, en référence aux CCC.

CCC ऋण 2023 के बैंक संकट के बाद पहली बार संकटग्रस्त हुआ है। अमेरिका के सबसे जोखिम भरे कॉर्पोरेट बॉन्ड्स का टीreasuries के ऊपर स्प्रेड 1,000 बीपीएस से ऊपर उठ गया है। यह स्तर typically उच्च संभावना का संकेत देता है default, restructuring, या loss. CCC रेटेड बॉन्ड्स ने बुधवार को 1,007 बीपीएस पर कारोबार किया, जो सितंबर की शुरुआत से 860 बीपीएस ऊपर है। यह मार्च 2023 के बाद से सबसे व्यापक है, जब निवेशकों ने क्षेत्रीय बैंकिंग संकट के रूप में Silicon Valley Bank और Credit Suisse को गिरते हुए देखा। "मुख्य चालक अर्थव्यवस्था अच्छी कर रही है लेकिन जरूरी नहीं कि जबर्दस्त रूप से," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "CCC रेटेड जारीकर्ता वहां के सबसे जोखिम भरे जारीकर्ता हैं, और वे ब्याज दरों में बदलाव के प्रति अत्यधिक संवेदनशील होते हैं." CCC spreads ने April से steady रूप से बढ़ाया है क्योंकि निवेशकों ने Federal Reserve's pivot to tighten policy in a bid to tame inflation की उम्मीद करना शुरू कर दिया है। वैश्विक यील्ड में वृद्धि highly leveraged borrowers पर दबाव डालती है debt service costs बढ़ाकर और refinancing कठिन बनाकर, ठीक उसी समय जब बड़ी मात्रा में बॉन्ड्स और लोन due हो रही है। इसके अलावा, कम रेटेड कंपनियां typically छोटी होती हैं और इसलिएinflation, particularly in energy prices के प्रभाव से ज्यादा exposed होती हैं bigger firms को। अगर वे इन लागतों को consumers को स्थानांतरित नहीं कर सकते, तो profits get squeezed. "Historically, when the Fed hikes into higher energy prices bad things happen to the economy," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. नहीं, सभी CCC ऋण पीड़ित नहीं हैं, हालांकि परेशान करने वाला हिस्सा पूरे ratings bucket को भारित कर रहा है, के अनुसार Barclays Plc. से worst-performing CCCs के आधे से अधिक technology, media and telecommunications sectors में हैं, केबल और उपग्रह कंपनियां सबसे बड़े laggards हैं। "जब हम आज Triple Cs को देखते हैं, तो dispersion बहुत, बहुत high है," said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC rated companies make up about 8.5% of the US high-yield index, down from 9.7% a year ago.

Higher-rated bonds के spreads despite soaring global yields and slumping equities relatively steady रहे हैं। "Even if there continues to be pain there, it doesn't necessarily need to have a ripple effect to all high-yield bond investments," Martin said, referring to CCCs.

Obligasi CCC pertama kali menjadi terdistresed sejak krisis bank 2023. Spread pada obligasi korporasi AS yang paling berisiko telah melampaui 1.000 basis point di atas Treasury untuk pertama kalinya sejak krisis bank regional 2023. Tingkat risiko premium ini biasanya mengimplikasi probabilitas tinggi default, rekonstruksi atau loss.

Utang yang diberi peringkat CCC — tingkat terendah dari sampah — diperdagangkan pada spread 1.007 basis point pada Rabu, naik dari 860 basis point di awal September. Itu paling lebar sejak Maret 2023, ketika investor membuang kredit berisiko sehubungan dengan krisis bank regional yang menurunkan Silicon Valley Bank dan Credit Suisse. "Pemicu kunci adalah ekonomi sedang baik tapi tidak tentu saja luar biasa," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "Penerbit CCC adalah penerbit dengan risiko tertinggi di sana, dan mereka cenderung sangat sensitif terhadap perubahan suku bunga." Spread CCC telah naik secara konsisten sejak April, karena investor memulai memperkirakan pivot Federal Reserve untuk mengencangkan kebijakan guna menenangkan inflasi. Naiknya yield global menekan peminjam dengan leverage tinggi dengan menaikkan biaya pelayanan utang dan membuatnya lebih sulit untuk merefinansialisasi, tepat ketika besar bagian obligasi dan kredit jatuh tempo.

Selain itu, perusahaan dengan peringkat lebih rendah cenderung lebih kecil dan oleh karena itu lebih terpapar terhadap dampak inflasi, terutama harga energi. Jika mereka tidak dapat memindahkan itu kepada konsumen, laba mereka akan ditekan. "Sejarahnya, ketika Fed menaik suku bunga ke harga energi yang tinggi, hal-hal buruk terjadi pada ekonomi," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Tidak semua utang CCC sedang menderita, meski bagian yang terdistresed menimbang pada bucket rating seluruhnya, menurut Barclays Plc. Lebih dari separuh CCC terburuk performa berada di sektor teknologi, media dan telekomunikasi, dengan perusahaan kabel dan satelit perusahaan yang paling ketinggalan. "Ketika kita melihat Triple Cs hari ini, dispersi sangat, sangat tinggi," said Corry Short, seorang strategis di Barclays, merujuk pada perbedaan yang membesar dalam performa oleh obligasi, perusahaan dan sektor.

Perusahaan dengan peringkat CCC membuat sekitar 8,5% dari indeks high-yield AS, turun dari 9,7% setahun yang lalu. Spread pada obligasi dengan peringkat lebih tinggi telah tetap relatif stabil meskipun yield global melonjak dan saham turun. "Meski terus ada rasa sakit, tidak perlu harus memiliki efek gelombang pada semua investasi obligasi high-yield," said Martin, merujuk pada CCC.

CCC债券2023年银行危机以来首次转为困境。美国最危险的公司债券利差已逾越1,000个基点相对于国债。该风险溢价通常意味着高概率的违约、重组或损失。周三交易的CCC评级债券利差为1,007个基点，较9月初的860个基点上升。这是自2023年3月以来最宽的水平，当时投资者在区域银行危机导致硅谷银行和瑞信倒闭后抛售了有风险的信用。"关键驱动因素是经济状况良好，但未必一片大好," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "CCC评级发行者是最具风险的发行者，且对利率变动极为敏感。" CCC利差自4月以来持续上升，因为投资者开始预联邦储备委员会将通过紧缩政策来抑制通胀。全球债收益率飙升通过增加债务服务成本并使再融资变得更加困难，从而对高度杠杆的借款人施加压力，正好在大量债券和贷款到期之际。此外，评级较低的公司往往规模较小，因此比大型企业更易受通胀影响，特别是在能源价格。如果它们无法将这些成本转嫁给消费者，利润就会受到压缩。"历史上，当美联储在能源价格较高的情况下加息，经济往往会遭遇不良后果," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. 虽然并非所有CCC债券都在受苦，但根据巴克莱公司的说法，处于困境的部分正压低整个评级范围。最糟糕的CCC债券中超过一半位于技术、媒体和电信领域，有线和卫星公司表现最差。"当我们今天看CCC时，分化非常非常高," said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC评级公司占美国高收益指数的约8.5%，较一年前的9.7%有所下降。尽管全球债收益率飙升、股票下跌，但高评级债券的利差相对稳定。"即使继续有痛苦，也不一定会波及所有高收益债券投资," Martin说，指的是CCC。

A dívida CCC tornou-se distressed pela primeira vez desde a crise bancária de 2023. O spread sobre os títulos corporativos americanos de maior risco saltou acima de 1.000 pontos básicos sobre os Tesouros pela primeira vez desde a crise bancária regional de 2023. Esse nível de prêmio de risco normalmente implica alta probabilidade de default, reestruturação ou perda.

Títulos classificados como CCC — o nível mais baixo de títulos de lixo — negociaram-se a um spread de 1.007 pontos básicos na quarta-feira, subindo de 860 pontos básicos no início de setembro. É o mais amplo desde março de 2023, quando os investidores jogaram crédito arriscado à medida que uma crise bancária regional derrubou o Silicon Valley Bank e o Credit Suisse. "O motor principal é a economia está bem mas não necessariamente indo a todo vapor," disse Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "Os emissores classificados como CCC são os emissores mais arriscados, e tendem a ser os mais sensíveis às mudanças nas taxas de juros." Os spreads de CCC têm subido de forma constante desde abril, pois os investidores começaram a antecipar a mudança da Reserva Federal para apertar a política com o objetivo de conter a inflação. Os rendimentos globais em alta exercem pressão sobre os tomadores de empréstimo altamente alavancados ao aumentar os custos de serviço da dívida e dificultar o reembolso, exatamente no momento em que uma grande fatia de títulos e empréstimos vence. Além disso, empresas com classificação mais baixa tendem a ser menores e, portanto, mais expostas ao impacto da inflação, particularmente nos preços da energia.

Se não conseguirem repassar isso aos consumidores, seus lucros ficam apertados. "Historicamente, quando a Fed sobe taxas em preços de energia altos, coisas ruins acontecem com a economia," disse Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Nem toda a dívida CCC está sofrendo, embora a parte em dificuldades esteja pesando sobre todo esse bucket de classificação, segundo Barclays Plc. Mais da metade dos piores performing CCCs estão nos setores de tecnologia, mídia e telecomunicações, com empresas de cabo e satélite os maiores atrasados. "Quando olhamos para os Triple Cs hoje, a dispersão é muito, muito alta," disse Corry Short, um estrategista da Barclays, referindo-se a uma diferença crescente de desempenho por título, empresa e setor. Empresas classificadas como CCC representam cerca de 8,5% do índice de alto rendimento dos EUA, contra 9,7% há um ano.

Os spreads em títulos com classificação mais alta permaneceram relativamente estáveis apesar dos rendimentos globais em alta e das ações em queda. "Mesmo que continue haver dor, não necessariamente precisa ter um efeito de onda sobre todos os investimentos em títulos de alto rendimento," disse Martin, referindo-se aos CCC.

CCC Bonds turned distressed for the first time since 2023 Bank Crisis. Spread on the riskiest US corporate bonds has jumped above 1 000 basis points over Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023. That level of risk premium typically implies high probability of default, restructuring or loss.

Debt that is rated CCC — the lowest tier of junk — traded at a spread of 1 007 basis points on Wednesday, up from 860 basis points at the start of September. That's the widest since March 2023, when investors dumped risky credit as a regional banking crisis took down Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. "The key driver is the economy is doing well but not necessarily going gangbusters," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "Triple C rated issuers are the riskiest issuers out there, and they tend to be the most sensitive to changing interest rates." CCC spreads have risen steadily since April as investors began anticipating the Federal Reserve's pivot to tighten policy in a bid to tame inflation. Soaring global yields pressure highly levered borrowers by boosting debt service costs and making it harder to refinance, just as a large chunk of bonds and loans comes due.

In addition, lower-rated companies tend to be smaller and therefore more exposed than bigger firms to the impact of inflation, particularly in energy prices. If they can't pass that on to consumers, profits get squeezed. "Historically, when the Fed hikes into higher energy prices bad things happen to the economy," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. Not all CCC debt is suffering, though the distressed portion is weighing on that entire ratings bucket, according to Barclays Plc. More than half of the worst-performing CCCs are in the technology, media and telecommunications sectors, with cable and satellite companies the biggest laggards. "Even if there continues to be pain there, it doesn't necessarily need to have a ripple effect to all high-yield bond investments," Martin said, referring to CCCs.

CCC债券自2023年银行危机以来首次转为困境。针对美国国债的最危险公司债券利差已逾越1,000个基点。该风险溢价通常意味着高概率的违约、重组或损失。周三交易的CCC评级债券利差为1,007个基点，较9月初的860个基点上升。这是自2023年3月以来最宽的水平，当时投资者在区域银行危机导致硅谷银行和瑞信倒闭后抛售了有风险的信用。"关键驱动因素是经济状况良好，但未必一片大好," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab Corp. "CCC评级发行者是最具风险的发行者，且对利率变动极为敏感。" CCC利差自4月以来持续上升，因为投资者开始预联邦储备委员会将通过紧缩政策来抑制通胀。全球债收益率飙升通过增加债务服务成本并使再融资变得更加困难，从而对高度杠杆的借款人施加压力，正好在大量债券和贷款到期之际。此外，评级较低的公司往往规模较小，因此比大型企业更易受通胀影响，特别是能源价格。如果它们无法将这些成本转嫁给消费者，利润就会受到压缩。"历史上，当美联储在能源价格较高的情况下加息，经济往往会遭遇不良后果," said Jack Mc Intyre, global bond and fixed income portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Inc. 虽然并非所有CCC债券都在受苦，但根据巴克莱公司的说法，处于困境的部分正压低整个评级范围。最糟糕的CCC债券中超过一半位于技术、媒体和电信领域，有线和卫星公司表现最差。"当我们今天看CCC时，分化非常非常高," said Corry Short, a strategist at Barclays, referring to a widening difference in performance by bond, company and sector. CCC评级公司占美国高收益指数的约8.5%，较一年前的9.7%有所下降。尽管全球债收益率飙升、股票下跌，但高评级债券的利差相对稳定。"即使继续有痛苦，也不一定会波及所有高收益债券投资," Martin说，指的是CCC。