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VCs warn AI funding frenzy fuels groupthink and valuation risk

TechCrunch Venture •
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At TechCrunch’s StrictlyVC event in Athens, Niko Bonatos of Verdict Capital, Andreas Stavropoulos of Threshold Ventures and Ben Blume of Atomico dissected the AI funding surge. They noted SpaceX’s looming IPO could target a $1.75 trillion valuation, while OpenAI and Anthropic chase comparable heights. The trio argued such mega‑IPOs will flood public markets with wealth, reshaping capital distribution for upcoming startups.

Bonatos warned that three‑quarters of all VC money raised last year flowed into five firms, creating a stark groupthink dynamic. Young AI founders now receive seed term sheets at 22 and Series A offers at 19, while seasoned entrepreneurs outside the hype struggle to secure meetings. The VCs see a correction ahead, but they believe long‑term optimism still outweighs short‑term results.

Investors now price rounds by the incremental value of each dollar, a $500 million fund like Blume’s faces different economics than a $10‑plus billion giant. Blume cautioned that lax ARR definitions—token‑based billing and free‑token revenue—inflate metrics, forcing sophisticated VCs to cut through the noise. They remain vigilant about valuation bubbles. The consensus: capital will keep chasing speed, but only the most adaptable founders will survive.