China’s liquefied natural gas imports are set to decline for a second month as surging prices triggered by the Middle East conflict curb demand. Deliveries are forecast at about 5.3 million tons in September, according to projections from Kpler. That would be roughly 8% below a year earlier, based on a comparison with customs data.

Weaker demand from China — the world’s top buyer last year — is providing some relief to a tight global market, where prices have climbed to the highest since late 2022 due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A colder winter could intensify competition between Europe and Asia for available cargoes, potentially driving prices even higher and adding to inflationary pressures in gas-importing economies. Chinese buyers have reduced spot purchases since the rise in prices made it uneconomical to bring cargoes into the cheaper domestic market.

Some importers have instead been reselling long-term contracted supply overseas to lock in a better return. Imports may recover as winter approaches. Beijing is encouraging state-owned buyers to curb resales of the fuel to ensure sufficient supplies when heating demand peaks.

The Persian Gulf has typically made up about a third of China’s LNG imports, which weakened dramatically in the first months of the war, prompting the nation to seek more volumes from elsewhere, including Russia and Malaysia.