December Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $99.88 a barrel, while December WTI futures dropped 0.8% to $87.54 a barrel as traders weighed recovering Middle East exports against persistent shipping risks. Regional crude flows have exceeded prewar levels on several days in late September due to alternative routes and logistical adjustments, according to Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova. However, renewed tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate shipping, insurance, and security concerns.
Vivek Dhar of Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted that higher Middle East exports, lower Chinese imports, and rising non-OPEC+ supply could lead to oversupply, though traders remain cautious about the sustainability of the export rebound. The seven-day average for crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached 10.3 million barrels a day as of Saturday, or 76% of prewar levels, per Kpler data. Refined products like diesel and gasoline made up just 11% of strait flows, down from over 20% pre-conflict, due to ongoing refinery damage.
Tensions persist in the Red Sea, where Saudi and Yemeni forces are counteroffensives to retake Mokha from Houthi fighters, and Saudi-led coalition operations in Hodeidah destroyed weapons depots and naval mines to secure Bab al-Mandeb. U.S. Central Command reported redirecting the 130th commercial vessel under its naval blockade against Iran, which has disabled three vessels and destroyed 13 over the past 12 weeks.
Source: Wall Street Journal US Business · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing