Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil and Oil Surge
US stocks bloomberg.com slumped to end a volatile week, with soaring oil prices and the specter of energy supply shocks from the Middle East fanning inflation fears. Crude prices ft.com surged above $90 a barrel for the first time in the Iran war, as traders brace for longer conflict and further production shutdowns. Energy markets investing.com saw Asia hit hardest by the shock, followed by Europe and the US, according to Morgan Stanley analysis.
Iran Conflict Escalates
President Trump bloomberg.com demanded "unconditional surrender" from Iran, rejecting negotiated peace as US and Israeli airstrikes continue. Israeli forces bloomberg.com claim to have destroyed most of Iran's missile launchers, causing the number of missiles targeting Israel and other countries to fall. Meanwhile, Iranian operatives bloomberg.com made indirect contact with the US to negotiate an end to the conflict, according to a New York Times report.
Economic Data and Policy
February's jobs report investing.com showed a surprising decline in nonfarm payrolls, falling by 92,000 and raising concerns about the labor market. Fed officials bloomberg.com offered mixed views, with Goolsbee hopeful for rate cuts by year-end while Daly expressed concern about weak data. Kevin Hassett bloomberg.com called the jobs loss an "outlier" affected by bad weather.
Global Market Reactions
Emerging markets bloomberg.com extended losses after Trump ruled out a deal with Iran, erasing short-lived relief from US data. Colombia's local debt bloomberg.com rallied on the oil surge, converting from worst performer to leading gainer. Qatar bloomberg.com loaded its first LNG cargo since declaring force majeure amid the conflict.
Supply Chain Disruptions
Aluminum buyers bloomberg.com in the US rushed to secure alternative supplies from Asia as the war on Iran disrupted a major foreign source. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd investing.com temporarily halted key shipping lanes amid the Iran conflict, disrupting trade flows. Saudi oil storage bloomberg.com filled rapidly as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to shipping.
Financial Sector Developments
BlackRock ft.com limited redemptions at its private credit fund as outflows swelled, with withdrawal requests surging to 9.3% of net asset value. Blue Owl bloomberg.com has £36 million exposure to collapsed UK lender Century Capital Partners. Western Alliance wsj.com sued Jefferies over $126.4 million in loan charge-offs.
Corporate News and Deals
Servier wsj.com agreed to buy Day One for $2.5 billion, expanding its oncology portfolio with a 68% premium to Day One's closing price. IG4 Capital bloomberg.com signaled it may abandon talks to acquire a controlling stake in Brazilian petrochemical giant Braskem as antitrust delays continue. TA Associates bloomberg.com is considering selling bubble-tea maker Gong Cha.
Technology and AI Sector
Nvidia finance.yahoo.com stopped H200 chip production and faced an AI-related selloff that Barclays says is overdone in life science tool stocks. CoreWeave investing.com is building a "gigawatt-sized engine for an AI future," according to Oppenheimer. BMO investing.com upgraded Okta on demand for AI identity security.
International Developments
Canada's Prime Minister Carney bloomberg.com pledged to expand energy trade and military cooperation with Japan during his Tokyo visit. UK construction bloomberg.com activity unexpectedly declined at a sharper pace in February, with housebuilding particularly weak. Swiss officials bloomberg.com aim to continue trade talks with the US despite Supreme Court decisions on tariffs.
Market Sentiment and Strategy
Peter Oppenheimer bloomberg.com at Goldman Sachs said stocks may suffer correction but "nothing systemic," while Stuart Kaiser at Citi noted that the bar for bad news is quite high. Yardeni investing.com warned of a potential 10% correction, up to 15% if the Hormuz blockade holds. Credit investors bloomberg.com unwound long positions worth tens of billions of dollars and jumped into hedging trades.
Regional Market Updates
UK house prices investing.com reached new highs in February as the market showed resilience. Vistry investing.com slumped on margin warnings while other shares gained on easing tension bets. DHL investing.com shares rose after a Barclays upgrade to "overweight" with price target raised by 26%.
Energy Policy and Strategy
The International Energy Agency bloomberg.com said no need yet to tap oil stockpiles amid the Mideast crisis, as global supplies remain plentiful. US officials bloomberg.com have no plans to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to bring down oil prices, though many tools remain available. Kuwait investing.com cut oil output as storage filled up amid regional disruptions.
Financial Markets Technicals
The WSJ Dollar Index wsj.com rose 0.29% to 95.86, up three of the past four trading days. Gold futures wsj.com jumped after the weaker-than-expected jobs report but later pared gains. Bitcoin investing.com surged above $73,000 as risk assets caught a bid amid Trump comments in focus.
Private Markets and Credit
Direct lenders bloomberg.com have taken control of nearly 150 companies in Europe after they could no longer afford debt payments, according to Goldman Sachs. European private credit borrowers ft.com rarely go bankrupt, highlighting the sector's resilience. State Street and Apollo bloomberg.com discussed private markets going mainstream as integration opportunities grow.
M&A and Investment Banking
Dealmakers bloomberg.com see the Iran war stymieing M&A with delays and diligence concerns, potentially derailing record merger activity. Barclays investing.com said the AI-related selloff in life science tool stocks is overdone. Citi investing.com upgraded Holcim to "buy" seeing 19% upside after ETS-driven selloff.