DHL shares rose over 2% after Barclays upgraded the logistics giant to overweight from equal weight, raising its price target to €54 from €43. The move reflects how Middle East geopolitical tensions have tightened airfreight supply conditions, benefiting DHL's market position. The stock closed at €45.89 on March 5, implying potential upside of 17.7%.

Barclays cited a 40% drop in air cargo capacity on key Asia-Europe corridors following Gulf airspace shutdowns and grounding of Middle East flag carriers, which account for 13% of global air cargo capacity. DHL holds dominant market shares: 51% in European Express, 63% in Middle East and Africa, and 57% in Asia Pacific. The bank lifted its FY26 EBIT estimate by 2% to €6.5 billion, 5% above DHL's own guidance.

The upgrade comes as Barclays projects €280 million of organic Express EBIT growth before cost savings, against guidance implying no Express EBIT growth. Without DHL's planned €400 million in incremental cost savings, the bank estimates Freight Forwarding EBIT could have declined up to €150 million year-on-year and Post & Parcel by up to €250 million.