A classified U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that even a large-scale military campaign against Iran would be unlikely to remove the country's ruling establishment, according to a report by The Washington Post. The analysis, prepared by the National Intelligence Council before the United States and Israel launched military operations on Feb. 28, concluded that Iran's clerical and military leadership would likely remain in power even if senior leaders were targeted or killed.

According to the report, Iran's institutions are structured to preserve continuity of power, meaning the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely trigger succession procedures designed to maintain the existing system rather than lead to regime collapse. The findings could complicate President Donald Trump's stated objective of reshaping Iran's leadership, as the administration has suggested that military pressure could eventually remove the country's ruling structure.

The NIC, which represents the combined analytical work of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, produces classified assessments intended to guide policymakers on major geopolitical risks. Experts cited by the Post said the intelligence conclusions reflect the resilience of Iran's political system. With the conflict now entering its second week, Trump has continued to demand Iran's 'unconditional surrender,' while Iranian officials have rejected suggestions that the United States could influence the country's future leadership.