The CIA assessed that if Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed, IRGC elements would likely replace him, according to sources cited in an exclusive report. This assessment came ahead of recent Iran attacks and reflects deep concerns about succession dynamics in Tehran's hardline power structure.

The intelligence assessment suggests the IRGC would move to fill any leadership vacuum if Khamenei died, potentially accelerating Iran's militarization. Such a transition could destabilize the clerical establishment's grip on power and shift Iran toward more aggressive regional policies. The timing of this assessment - prior to recent attacks - indicates heightened US intelligence focus on Iran's internal vulnerabilities.

This intelligence finding carries significant implications for US-Iran relations and regional stability. A hardline IRGC takeover could eliminate diplomatic channels and increase the likelihood of direct military confrontations. The assessment underscores how succession planning remains a critical vulnerability in Iran's opaque political system.