Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Volatility and Tech Sector Developments
US stocks bloomberg.com slumped to end a volatile week, with soaring oil prices and the specter of energy supply shocks from the Middle East fanning inflation fears. A surprise decline in US jobs also contributed to the downturn, as economists had expected a gain of about 50,000 jobs following January's addition of 126,000 positions. The S&P 500 futures were down 0.6% as of 7:45 a.m. in New York, with traders awaiting Friday's jobs report amid climbing oil prices.
CoreWeave investing.com is building a 'gigawatt-sized engine for an AI future,' according to Oppenheimer, while BMO investing.com upgraded Okta on demand for AI identity security. Marvell Technology investing.com received analyst upgrades as its outlook signals growth re-acceleration, with BofA investing.com upgrading Ciena on cloud data center spending. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals investing.com faces scrutiny as Barclays suggests its profits from Dupixent may be underpriced.
Economic Data and Policy Implications
US nonfarm payroll employment investing.com unexpectedly fell in February, extending a tepid trend for US shopping since late last year. US retail sales wsj.com declined in January, according to the Commerce Department, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. The weak jobs report has undermined the benign economic outlook, with BlackRock's Rosenberg bloomberg.com noting the tradeoff between short-term inflation shocks and employment conditions.
Bond traders bloomberg.com boosted bets on Fed cuts this year after the disappointing employment report, even as a rise in energy prices threatens to fuel inflation. Fed's Waller bloomberg.com stated that the Iran war is 'unlikely to cause sustained inflation,' viewing the shock in oil prices as temporary. However, State Street's Dixon bloomberg.com argues that investors need to come to grips with inflation as a 'new reality of reaccelerating inflation' could mean for markets.
Middle East Conflict Impact
The Iran war is sending shock waves through the global aluminum industry, with US aluminum buyers bloomberg.com rushing to secure alternative supplies from Asia as the conflict disrupts a major foreign source. The conflict has upended long-held assumptions in Gulf markets, pushing investors to factor in new dangers. Russia bloomberg.com appears to be the first clear winner from the war in Iran, with Indian refiners snapping up Moscow's barrels after Middle East flows have bottled up in the Persian Gulf.
Maritime and ports businesses ft.com have temporarily halted key shipping lanes amid the Iran conflict, while reinsurers bloomberg.com have tripled ship insurance costs after a US torpedo attack. DHL investing.com shares rose after a Barclays upgrade to 'overweight,' with the PT raised by 26%. The conflict has also led to Qatar bloomberg.com loading its first LNG cargo since force majeure, and Kuwait bloomberg.com cutting oil output as storage fills up.
Corporate and Investment News
BlackRock ft.com has limited redemptions at its private credit fund as outflows swell, with withdrawal requests at the flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund surging to 9.3% of net asset value. Blue Owl bloomberg.com has £36 million exposure to a collapsed UK lender, Century Capital Partners Ltd., which filed for administration last month. The conflict has highlighted risks in private credit markets, with Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com reporting that direct lenders have taken control of nearly 150 companies in Europe.
Servier wsj.com will buy Day One for $2.5 billion, expanding its oncology portfolio with a 68% premium to Day One's closing price. Embraer bloomberg.com topped estimates and set ambitious 2026 guidance, while USA Rare Earth bloomberg.com is poised to buy the rest of its stake in the Round Top deposit in an all-stock transaction valued at about $73 million.
Energy and Commodities
US gasoline pump prices bloomberg.com advanced to the highest level under President Trump, with the conflict in the Middle East disrupting energy supplies. BP wsj.com asked shareholders to vote against calls for more disclosures as investors have been critical of its increased expenditure on oil-and-gas assets. Germany's solar boom bloomberg.com is easing power costs as gas prices jump, with unusually strong solar power output in March helping to cap electricity prices even as the conflict drives up energy costs worldwide.
Demand for carbon credits bloomberg.com may climb if the Middle East war drags on, as a protracted conflict could lift demand in the compliance market if ongoing disruptions to LNG supplies compel industries to turn to cheaper, higher-emission fuels. China bloomberg.com has embraced thrift with a vow to stem wasteful budget spending, sending a strong message of frugality soon after unveiling a more modest fiscal approach.
Technology and Innovation
Anthropic finance.yahoo.com says it will fight the Pentagon's 'supply chain risk' label, while Nvidia stopped H200 chip production amid growing scrutiny of AI supply chains. CPUs finance.yahoo.com are back en vogue in the data center as the AI sell-off is 'unfairly penalizing' industrial software, according to analysts. Colgate-Palmolive wsj.com has turned to AI evangelist Iraklis 'Kli' Pappas to drive employees toward using AI for more than just polishing emails.
Universal Music investing.com shares fell on weak margins and guidance concerns, while Marvell investing.com and Oracle rose premarket alongside Exxon Mobil. Gap fell amid broader market weakness, facing further pressure from declining Athleta sales. The AI risks are seen as a double-edged sword, with PagerDuty CEO bloomberg.com expressing optimism about AI while noting the current environment requires flexibility from leadership and workers.