Russia has emerged as the first clear winner of the Iran conflict after Washington granted India a temporary waiver to resume purchasing Russian oil. The US Treasury Department approved purchases of Russian barrels loaded before March 5, with the waiver running until April 4. This move came as Middle East oil flows bottlenecked in the Persian Gulf.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following US and Israeli strikes, has effectively trapped about 20% of global oil supplies in the Persian Gulf. While Iran hasn't physically blocked the waterway, shipping companies are avoiding it due to actual and threatened attacks on vessels. This disruption has pushed oil prices to their highest levels since 2024, raising concerns about potential shortages.

For Russia, the closure represents an unexpected opportunity as its oil exports faced mounting pressure since late 2025. India had significantly reduced Russian crude purchases under US pressure, with deliveries falling to just 1.1 million barrels daily in February. Now Indian buyers are snapping up stranded Russian cargoes, paying premiums and boosting Moscow's war chest at a critical moment when sanctions were beginning to bite.