India's energy strategy has taken a sharp turn back toward Russian oil after the Trump administration granted a 30-day waiver for sanctioned crude currently stranded at sea. The waiver comes as India faces severe supply disruptions from its traditional Middle Eastern suppliers due to escalating conflict with Iran. The waiver effectively green-lights continued purchases of Russian crude, reversing the terms of a recent trade deal with Washington.

Indian refiners had been reducing Russian purchases since last summer when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods and sanctioned some refiners to pressure Moscow's "war machine." The recent trade agreement with the U.S. required India to stop buying Russian oil, saving billions through discounted crude purchases since the Ukraine war began. However, the Supreme Court recently invalidated the tariffs Trump used to force that deal.

Industry analysts note India's refineries are already configured to process Russian crude, with shipping and insurance networks prepared for increased imports. Kpler estimates over 30 million barrels of Russian oil are idling in tankers near the Indian Ocean, enough for six days of India's total demand. While Russian shipments take nearly a month to reach Indian ports compared to less than a week from the Gulf, the current crisis leaves India with few alternatives as the Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed by military action.