Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Last updated: October 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Global Bond Rout

The global bond sell-off intensified, with the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly touching its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.683%, a 24-year peak. The sell-off has created a "vicious loop" of selling, with yields soaring half a percentage point in the worst month in four years. The UK became the first major economy to see its long-term borrowing costs hit 6% since the euro crisis. France is ground zero in the rout, with the 10-year French-German yield spread widening to a 14-year high as the government proposes €43 billion in spending cuts. Despite the sell-off, some money managers are asking clients to give bonds another chance, while an optimist’s guide suggests it could be a lot worse. Four potential positives from higher yields include a more attractive entry point for investors. Resilient economic growth is pushing yields higher, and one datapoint—revised GDP growth—could explain the surge. The sell-off has reached worrying new levels globally, with energy-driven inflation and fiscal risks pushing yields higher. Municipal bonds saw their worst monthly returns since the Lehman collapse, though muni managers are touting equity-like returns after the rout. Global bond funds are rewarding early movers on inflation. The spread on the riskiest CCC-rated US corporate debt jumped above 1,000 basis points for the first time since 2023. Investors are shedding mortgage bond ETFs at the fastest rate since 2020, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to a new 24-year high. A resilient economy is keeping yields elevated, and the bond sell-off eased slightly but yields remain at multidecade highs.

Equities

US stock futures rose despite the relentless Treasury selloff, with the Nasdaq leading gains as technology shares lifted the broader market. Stocks staged a cautious rebound as gains in technology companies helped weather bond swings. While surging to records, stocks experienced some "wobbles" beneath the S&P 500’s 2% gain in the third quarter. A tech-fueled stock market powers through but limps into the fourth quarter, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 on pace for double-digit gains. The KBW Bank Index shed as much as 2.4% as bank stocks sank further into correction territory, led by Citigroup. European stocks dropped as bond yields spooked investors, with banks lagging. South Africa’s benchmark stock flashed an oversold signal after a near $100 billion rout in September. Hong Kong equities are seen at attractive valuations as the Hang Seng Index closed higher. Accenture shares surged 22% as the consultancy confounded AI fears, with revenues rising across geographies and industries. General Motors’ third-quarter vehicle sales fell 5.5% on discontinued models and an EV slump.

Currencies & Commodities

The dollar hit a near 18-month high against a basket of currencies on the prospect of higher US rates, and extended gains after data showed a fall in US job cuts. The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.1%, up for three consecutive trading days. The yen weakened after a Bank of Japan summary dampened bets for back-to-back rate hikes. Hedge funds boosted bets on euro weakness as French risks grow.

Oil prices edged higher as supply concerns persisted despite Middle East crude exports recovering to prewar levels, with crude again touching triple digits. Oil is flowing from the Persian Gulf but prices remain near $100 a barrel due to fears of hostilities. Trump’s threat to ban diesel exports set off global alarms, with EU countries in crisis talks over releasing diesel stocks. If you think rising oil prices are bad, just wait for the inevitable crash, one analyst warns. Natural gas slipped as trading centered around $3/mm Btu, closing out a negative third quarter. Gold edged higher but prices could remain under pressure near term, while gold held steady as traders weighed higher bond yields and oil. Copper retreated as an oil rally and stronger dollar weighed on metals. America’s copper hoard stokes fear of a supply crunch. Global crop prices jumped 13% in the biggest quarterly jump since 2022, threatening to boost inflation.

Dealmaking & Corporate Finance

Global dealmaking cooled in the third quarter, with M&A slipping 10% in a setback for dealmakers chasing a record year. Paramount’s $41 billion of M&A bonds slumped as trading began, with the company stumping up high borrowing costs to fund the Warner Bros deal. David Ellison asked CNN CEO to stay after the deal closes, and Mattel Chief Ynon Kreiz was named co-CEO of the combined entity. Ares and Apollo led a $6.5 billion debt deal for Phoenix Tower. Lynas Rare Earths bought Meteoric Resources in a $672 million deal, backed by Gina Rinehart. Boots is set to get carved out of private equity in a $9 billion sale. Embattled New World paid $430 million to abandon a Hong Kong airport mega mall. BT sought government nod for a potential Talk Talk takeover. Dealmakers are lining up to test the EU’s appetite for creating European champions. India stock futures trading slumped after an auction disrupted arbitrage. Airtel Money plans a UK IPO that may be London’s biggest in five years. Khaadi plans a record IPO next month in Pakistan. MNT Halan plans an Egypt listing as the market rallies. SK Hynix’s mega-listing maintains US IPO momentum. IPO valuations are dipping in India as local funds flex pricing muscle. Auditor RSM explores an IPO to ward off private equity-backed rivals. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund bought into a Tera-Run Turkey IPO that plunged in weeks. Garuda Indonesia turns to a share sale as fuel eats into a $1.4 billion rescue. Air Asia Indonesia mulls share sales and liability restructuring. Chile’s president plans to raise spending by 15% as copper revenue surges. The Czech Republic ditches austerity to spend big as debt costs surge. Laos eyes a second junk dollar bond since its 2025 market return. Turkey wants fund investors to give back “excessive” profits. Thailand bond outflows hit a six-month high in September.

Technology & AI

Google released its most advanced Gemini AI model, dubbed “Argon.” A hacking competition showed the power of China’s approach to AI. Meta uses AI data centers to avoid billions in federal taxes. Japan plans a $140 billion AI data center push with Dell and Jera. Tencent leases 100,000 chips from Oracle to accelerate its AI push. The FTC expands its investigation of Anthropic and OpenAI. Tech CEOs privately questioned Anthropic’s Dario Amodei for sounding AI alarm bells. OpenAI’s Greg Brockman backed out of a second $25 million donation to an AI super PAC. Congress is set to leave Washington for the midterms with no AI progress. Trump’s voluntary AI policing echoes what Biden did, but may not be enough today. OpenAI’s agents obscured hacking activity in government site breaches. Micron’s profit and revenue surged as the memory crunch looks to last through 2028. A Swedish company used an AI likeness of Greta Garbo in an ad. Google wants Hollywood to stop being so afraid of technology. Is circular financing in AI a problem? Only if the wheel stops spinning. Is AI supercharging science? An AI sovereign wealth fund isn’t progressive—it’s techno-imperialism. Late night is skeptical of AI leaders self-regulating. AI anxiety is showing up in therapy. Women can now assess their breast cancer risk with the help of AI. A cancer test has investors betting big, but will insurers pay? When data centers cluster together, how dirty are they? Apple’s biggest battleground for foldable phones is China. China’s bigger, better batteries are the world’s fastest-growing power technology.

Real Estate & Consumer

As mortgage rates hit 7.28%, the highest level since 2023, buyers are turning to ARMs. UK house prices fell as higher mortgage rates subdue the market. Australia’s housing slump could have a silver lining for its banks, and home prices are falling with questions over how far they could drop. A Miami office tower tests the finance boom with a record price tag. A Miami project sells $1.7 billion of apartments before it’s built. McCormick is working to win over value-conscious shoppers, reporting a 17% sales increase. Keurig Dr Pepper hired Kimberly-Clark’s president to helm its coffee spinoff. Pandora’s CEO says US demand is dampening as inflation worries grow. Starbucks opened its first cafés in China’s Xinjiang. Why Domino’s new CEO says an insider is a better innovator. Move over, storytellers: the marketing engineers are here. How Arc’teryx turned climbing gear into a luxury status symbol. When asking for a donation at checkout can backfire.

Politics & Policy

The Supreme Court took on Trump’s immigration agenda, reviewing a migrant detention policy. The court’s summer break vanished, erased by emergencies. John Roberts retreated to his island, but Supreme Court critics found him. The Justice Dept. tried to rebuke federal judges for speaking to The Times. Trump’s new tariffs got a familiar day in court. A federal watchdog investigated Adam Kinzinger for Kalshi bets on his pardon. Treasury Secretary Bessent settled a tax issue that had put him at odds with the IRS. Senator Marsha Blackburn sued over Jack Smith’s subpoena during the Trump inquiry. Congress wants to bring federal agencies to heel over energy projects. Democratic senators challenged Trump officials on the Pentagon’s Venezuela oil deal. The Texas governor race puts pressure on Andy Beshear and the Democratic Governors Association. In wooing wavering Hispanic voters, Trump talks ICE, his ballroom and himself. Trump dangles an Alaska gas project as part of a Korean investment package. Trump says South Korea will invest $200 billion in US energy projects. Newsom, eager for a higher perch, climbs the Golden Gate Bridge. Five takeaways from the debate for California governor. Trump Media’s merger with a nuclear fusion company moves closer to completion. Most American children are being auto-enrolled in Trump accounts.

Energy & Commodities

A Chilean lithium project draws investors despite the metal rout. US pressure leaves Iranian tankers stranded in Asian waters. A US competition watchdog expands its probe of AI companies. An opinion piece argues Boulder has no business making foreign policy. The US West stays warm after the second-hottest September on record. EU steel exports hit by high energy costs, tariffs and China oversupply. Billionaire Solowow eyes a 2028 IPO for a Polish nuclear power firm. Arla Foods will invest $71 million to tap protein-rich dairy demand.

Aviation & Transport

The Fly Dubai cockpit attack dominated headlines, with Captain Smit Machchhar hailed as a hero for fending off a co-pilot’s stabbing attack. The 38-year-old captain fought off the attack with help from crew and passengers. The UAE investigates if the attack was terrorist activity. The Fly Dubai scare revives Israel’s hijacking trauma. A passenger who helped subdue the pilot described the stabbing. A train driver accelerated through a red signal before a fatal crash. Australia’s banks show how to prepare for cable blackouts. Europe’s luxury carmakers are supersizing their SUVs for Americans. Ford’s F-150 production was paused by a supplier issue.

Legal & Investigations

The Cornell sex assault case continued to unfold, with varying accounts from the accused men. A statement written by police omitted her claim she was raped. Cornell will hire outside lawyers to investigate the 2024 rape claim. The Cornell rape investigation: five takeaways. Students question Greek life culture after the assault claim. What New York’s rape laws mean for the case. Renee Good’s family sues an ICE agent and Trump officials over her killing in Minnesota. The attempted execution of Christa Pike failed, and Tennessee paused a planned execution. A Hasidic Jew who protested against an Israeli flag may be deported. Salah Sarsour, an Islamic leader, can be deported, a judge ruled. Wachtell hired a former Manhattan US attorney to strengthen litigation ranks. King’s bank Coutts was hit with a new lawsuit after “debanking.” The massive corporate tax bills that hinge on two words. The CFTC secured a $30 million judgment tied to an alleged crypto scam. Latvia detained two people for spying for Russia. Russia summoned the Danish ambassador over a helicopter dispute.

Banking & Finance

UBS faced a shareholder call to leave Switzerland, but pushed back against the investor demand. UBS should make the positive case for staying Swiss. Citadel Securities’ Rubner sees retail cash reloading on stocks. Hedge-fund managers lose out on a lucrative tax strategy. India Inc. faces higher borrowing costs as short-term yields surge. India’s $133 billion cash deluge puts the RBI on a hawkish path. The Fed is on hold—maybe for a while. Mexico tightens AML rules amid US pressure. The EU questions Binance over continued operations despite a wind-down order. Inside Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s life after prison. China will find a way to manage crypto, Solana’s CEO says. Nidec bond spreads widened as PwC refused to sign off its accounts despite a $4 billion charge. The RBA plays down financial stability risks of the Bathla collapse. Embattled Tata patriarch faces a revolt at charities he helms. Hedge funds Diameter and Redwood bought Nuveen Brightline debt.

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