A federal financial watchdog is investigating former Representative Adam Kinzinger for bets in a prediction market on whether President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would pardon him before leaving office. Mr. Kinzinger, a Republican critic of President Trump’s, was a member of the House select committee that investigated the January 2021 attack on the Capitol. He was pardoned by Mr. Biden on Jan. 20, 2025.
The investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission centers on bets Mr. Kinzinger made on Kalshi, a leading prediction market, in the weeks before he was pardoned, according to two people familiar with the confidential inquiry. Mr. Kinzinger netted roughly $800 on his trades, one person said. The inquiry, which began with a Kalshi referral, was reported earlier by Politico.
Mr. Kinzinger could not be reached for comment. He told Politico that he had no inside information about whether he would be pardoned and believed that he was following the rules. He retired from Congress in 2023 after serving six terms as a representative from Illinois.
The C.F.T.C. has been eager to show it is pursuing insider traders who seek to profit from prediction markets. As of August, the trading commission had as many as 20 ongoing investigations, just based on referrals from Kalshi. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, has a financial stake in Kalshi and Polymarket, another leading prediction market.
Source: New York Times Business · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing