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Trump’s Critique of Prediction Markets Clashes With Family Stakes

New York Times Business •
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Donald Trump’s Oval Office remarks about the dangers of prediction markets came just hours after a U.S. soldier faced charges for using classified intel to bet on outcomes. The president’s own media arm, Trump Media & Technology Group, is developing a similar platform, Truth Predict.

The controversy deepens as Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., sits on the board of Polymarket and advises the rival firm Kalshi. 1789 Capital, of which he is a partner, has backed Polymarket, while he remains a paid adviser to Kalshi.

A federal case saw Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke earn $400,000 from bets tied to the Venezuela operation. Congress now faces a bipartisan bill to bar officials from such markets, but the White House’s warning comes amid a broader industry that lets users wager on everything from sports to national security.

The gap between Trump’s public condemnation and his family’s financial ties raises sharp ethical questions for regulators and lawmakers, threatening to undermine any future oversight of the rapidly expanding prediction‑market sector.