BBC matched trade‑volume spikes to several of Donald Trump’s pronouncements during his second term. On March 9, 2026, oil futures flooded with sell orders about 47 minutes before a CBS interview revealed the U.S.–Iran war was “very complete,” pushing crude down 25 %. A similar surge hit on March 23 when oil fell 11 % minutes after the president posted a “total resolution” on Truth Social.

April 2, 2025, Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs, slashing global equities. A week later he paused the levies for every country except China, and the S&P 500 surged 9.5 %—one of the single‑day gains. Senate Democrats asked the SEC to probe whether the president’s statements enriched insiders. Trump’s son serves on the advisory board of Polymarket, a blockchain prediction market scrutinized after users earned millions betting on Trump‑related outcomes.

Analysts estimate the pre‑announcement oil bets alone could have netted traders roughly $20m. Federal law bars insider trading for government officials, yet enforcement stalls without a clear source. Law professor Paul Oudin says regulators rarely prosecute without proof of who leaked the tip. Neither the SEC nor the CFTC has confirmed an investigation, leaving the claims in legal limbo.