The Department of Justice and Commodity Futures Trading Commission have launched investigations into former congressman George Santos over alleged insider trading on prediction market platform Kalshi. Santos, recently released from prison after being expelled from Congress for fraud, reportedly placed bets on his own attendance at President Trump's State of the Union address before making public statements that influenced market odds.

According to NPR sources, Santos posted a video in February claiming he would attend the SOTU, causing betting odds on Kalshi and Polymarket to surge. He then failed to appear, instead watching from an airport TV, while allegedly profiting tens of thousands of dollars from bets against his own attendance. Kalshi detected the suspicious trades and froze his account before referring the matter to federal regulators.

Santos denied knowledge of the investigation when questioned, even falsely claiming personal friendship with Kalshi cofounder Luana Lopes Lara. This follows his 2024 expulsion from Congress and a seven-year fraud sentence commuted by Trump after just four months served. The former representative now offers personalized videos on Cameo for approximately $300.

The case highlights risks in prediction markets where users bet on real-world events. Similar trading patterns have emerged around Trump's announcements, with millions moving through markets hours before major policy reveals. While Santos makes an easy target given his history of falsehoods, the broader issue of political insider trading across government remains largely unaddressed.