Apple's September 9 iPhone announcement event could become a negative catalyst for shares, KeyBanc Capital Markets warns. In a research note seen by Investing.com, KeyBanc said the event may prompt investors to weigh pricing decisions against higher costs' impact on demand and margins. Apple faces a choice: raise prices broadly to offset gross margin pressure, risking "sticker shock" and lower unit volumes, or raise prices selectively, inviting margin scrutiny and prospects of further increases later. KeyBanc maintained an "Underweight" rating and a $250 price target, versus a $324.96 share price at publication.

KeyBanc models total iPhone 18 lineup builds at around 80 million units across fiscal Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, down from roughly 91 million a year earlier, largely due to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model. Higher pricing and a richer product mix may partially offset lower volumes. The firm expects a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro to $1,249, a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max to $1,399, and the foldable iPhone Ultra to start at $2,199.

KeyBanc also noted a historical pattern of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements, averaging a 0.72% decline on announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later. The "Surprise and shine" event begins at 10 a.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, September 9.