Global notebook shipments are projected to fall 14.8% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, according to a new TrendForce survey. Brands are caught between a temporary CPU supply shortfall and soaring memory prices, which have jumped over 80% for DRAM. This dual pressure is disrupting production schedules and forcing manufacturers to lower their shipment forecasts for the year.

The cost hikes extend beyond processors and memory. Rising prices for PCBs, batteries, and PMICs are squeezing already thin margins for notebook brands. Intel's price increases on lower-end CPUs, which dominate entry-level and mainstream notebooks, are a particular pain point. These component costs, combined with supply instability, create a challenging environment for product planning and release timing.

Looking ahead, a mild rebound is expected in Q2 2026 as Intel's CPU supply improves. However, the market outlook for the full year has been downgraded to a 9.4% shipment decline. The situation hinges on whether brands can absorb higher costs or pass them to consumers, and how quickly component supply chains stabilize amid ongoing demand from the AI sector.