TrendForce projects notebook prices could surge nearly 40% by 2026 as component costs escalate. With memory and CPU prices rising simultaneously, notebook brands face difficult choices between absorbing costs or passing them to consumers. This dual pressure comes at a time when market demand remains weak, creating a challenging environment for manufacturers and distributors already operating on thin margins.

Memory costs have dramatically increased, with DRAM and NAND Flash now projected to exceed 30% of a notebook's BOM cost in 1Q26, up from roughly 15%. Meanwhile, Intel has raised prices on entry-level CPUs by more than 15%, with further increases planned. Together, memory and CPU components could account for nearly 58% of total costs, compared to the current 45%.

Supply stability has become another concern as advanced manufacturing capacity prioritizes AI-related products. Larger brands with long-term partnerships may secure better allocations, while smaller manufacturers face greater risk. AMD has gained market share but is now experiencing supply constraints in some entry-level platforms, suggesting the $900 mainstream notebook segment could see particularly severe price increases across the industry.