A monthslong selloff in government bonds is pushing U.S. Treasury yields toward levels that could hurt stocks and the economy. Yields surged Thursday amid higher oil prices, firm inflation data, and President Trump’s promise to send $5,000 checks if Republicans retain Congress. The pledge would add more than $1 trillion to the federal deficit.

Yields have climbed since late June despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-debt buybacks. The 30-year Treasury reached 19-year highs, while the 10-year note approached 5% for only the second time since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, called 5% an emotional threshold likely to raise investor concern and weaken markets.

Rising yields lift borrowing costs for mortgages, student loans, and corporate bonds while drawing money from stocks. Strong corporate earnings have supported the market, but all three major indexes are down this month. Some investors may wait to buy bonds at 5%, as in October 2023.

Brent crude rose 6.3% to $107.63 a barrel. CME Group data showed a 71% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Ray Remy of Daiwa Capital Markets America said the bond market clearly expects the Fed to raise rates.