With the midterm elections just five weeks away, President Trump might want to give a listen to Johnny Cash’s version of the old gospel song “God’s Gonna Cut You Down.” Trump has been president, on and off, for five years and eight months. We have been waiting a long time, and there have been premature declarations in the past, but this time his string is finally running out. The evidence is decisive. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 17 to 20, the share of voters who disapprove of Trump (66 percent) is twice as large as the share of those who approve (32 percent).
Trump’s support among Latino voters is falling rapidly. Pew Research found that Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics who voted for him two years ago fell to 66 percent from 93 percent between February 2025 and April 2026. The way independents break in the end is often determinative, and they have turned their backs on Trump. In 2024, independents favored Trump by 3 percentage points. Asked now whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress, independents choose the Democrat over the Republican 57 percent to 32 percent, a 25-point difference.
Trump has lost “ownership” of the issues that put him in the White House. In 2024, voters said Republicans would do a better job dealing with immigration than Democrats, 42 percent to 30 percent. Two weeks ago, the NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll found that voters had shifted to favor Democrats by a modest three points, 41 to 38 percent, but that modest three-point advantage actually represents a 15-point swing. Voters are showing a growing determination to repudiate the Trump presidency.
Trump, as we have learned to our detriment, cannot tolerate defeat. He has already taken actions that amount to expressions of desperation: an offer to pay every adult $5,000 if Republicans retain control of both branches of Congress, for example. He also told us that he would “do anything necessary to make sure we have honest elections.” The only elections Trump recognizes as “honest” are the ones Republicans win.