Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal will probably win the men's Ballon d'Or, according to prediction markets. Kane has about a two-in-three chance, while Yamal sits at 28%, with the remaining percentage points split between Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi. ESPN staff writer Ryan O'Hanlon argues the award is silly, pointing to how the favorite shifted from Messi to Kane after the World Cup final, even though Kane did not play in it.
O'Hanlon highlights the award's contradictory rules. Article 2 says the prize rewards the best player regardless of league or nationality, yet Article 4 ranks individual performance first and collective success second, which favors players on strong teams. That contradiction, he says, makes it easy to argue almost any candidate.
To gauge perceived performance, O'Hanlon turns to the European Sports Media Team of the Month, voted on since 1995. Messi has made 88 appearances, Cristiano Ronaldo 51, and no other player more than 34. Among active players in Europe, Kevin De Bruyne (32) and Virgil van Dijk (30) lead, with Mbappé next at 25.
Last season, Kane led all players with 8 Team of the Month selections, while Mbappé had 5. Goalkeeper David Raya, who did not make the 30-player Ballon d'Or shortlist, was named seven times. Yamal, by contrast, made only two appearances, fewer than several rivals, making him the most surprising omission from the conversation.
Source: ESPN Soccer · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing