A global DRAM shortage driven by AI companies buying high-bandwidth memory for data centers will cause a 13 percent drop in smartphone sales in 2026, according to IDC. The memory supply has been depleted into next year, forcing manufacturers to prioritize HBP over consumer devices and creating what IDC calls a "crisis like no other." Smartphone shipments are expected to fall from 1.26 billion in 2025 to 1.1 billion next year.

Cheap Android smartphones will be hit hardest by rising DRAM costs, while Apple is better positioned to weather the storm due to its premium pricing strategy and stronger profit margins. Apple can absorb higher memory costs in the short term and secure available supply more effectively than competitors. However, the company isn't completely immune - Apple is reportedly paying Samsung twice as much for LPDDR5X memory chips needed for iPhone 17 production.

Even when the shortage resolves, IDC predicts memory prices won't return to 2025 levels, suggesting a permanent shift toward higher-priced smartphones. The crisis highlights how AI infrastructure demands are reshaping the consumer electronics market, with smartphone makers caught in the middle of competing priorities for limited memory resources.