Global smartphone shipments face a 10% decline in 2026 as surging memory chip prices squeeze manufacturers, according to research firm TrendForce. The market, which saw 1.24-1.26 billion units shipped in 2025 with 2% growth, now faces a projected 1.135 billion units for the calendar year.

TrendForce warns of a "Bear-case scenario" where shipments could plummet by 15% to 1.061 billion units. The memory component cost, traditionally 10-15% of a smartphone's bill of materials, has skyrocketed to 30-40%, forcing manufacturers to either absorb costs or pass them to consumers. This dramatic price increase will inevitably drive up average selling prices across the industry.

Major brands will experience varying impacts from the shortage. Samsung's vertical integration and position as a key memory supplier provides a competitive advantage, while Apple's customer base shows higher price tolerance. Chinese manufacturers, particularly those focused on entry-level devices like Xiaomi, face the greatest vulnerability due to their price-sensitive markets and reliance on cost-effective components. The memory crisis threatens to reshape the smartphone landscape, potentially accelerating consolidation among manufacturers unable to weather the financial strain.