Jefferies analyst Edison Lee has slashed global smartphone shipment forecasts, predicting a 31% fall to 867 million units in 2026 as memory costs surge far beyond expectations. The firm's latest analysis shows memory prices for an average Android device could rise 3.6x year-over-year, reversing earlier assumptions of an 80% annual increase.

Mobile DRAM (LPDDR5) prices jumped 70% quarter-over-quarter or 151% year-over-year in Q1, while NAND prices soared 80% QoQ or 360% YoY. Jefferies expects second-quarter price hikes of 50%+ QoQ, intensifying pressure across the industry. The firm's checks reveal that soaring memory costs are forcing a major revision of market dynamics.

Market share will shift dramatically as Samsung and Apple gain ground. Samsung benefits from guaranteed memory supply, while Apple's less price-sensitive customer base provides insulation. Chinese brands face the steepest declines, with Xiaomi's shipments forecast to fall 55% despite a 31% average selling price increase. OPPO, vivo, and other major Chinese OEMs could see volumes drop 45-52%. Jefferies concludes that soaring memory prices will boost Samsung and Apple's market share the most, with Chinese OEMs emerging as the biggest losers.