An hour by helicopter from Guyana's capital, Exxon Mobil's One Guyana offshore platform operates with over 160 workers in 12-hour shifts, symbolizing the company's massive wager on the South American nation. Since striking oil in 2015, Guyana has become the world's fastest-growing economy, now producing nearly 1% of global supply. Much of this oil flows to Europe, replacing Russian barrels, and to Asia amid the Iran war, per Kpler data. The Guyana operations contributed an estimated 15 percent of Exxon's operating income last year, pushing total production to a 40-year high. As economist Richard Rambarran noted, "It's often said that Exxon saved Guyana... One could also say that Guyana saved Exxon."

However, significant risks loom. Critics like University of Guyana economist Thomas Singh argue Guyana receives a terribly bad deal at 14.5 percent take, far below Norway or Brazil. Exxon Guyana president Alistair Routledge counters the contract is fair, noting Exxon bears all financial risk and an escalation mechanism will increase Guyana's share now that development costs are recouped.

Political instability and a territorial dispute with Venezuela further complicate operations. The UN's top court is weighing the border feud, which blocks exploration in contested areas. Exxon must navigate this fractious landscape while avoiding the resource nationalism that has seized private assets elsewhere in Latin America.