Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Volatility
US stocks rebounded Wednesday morning as better-than-expected labor market data and service sector expansion helped offset Iran war concerns. The Institute for Supply Management's services index rose to 56.1 in February, marking the fastest expansion since mid-2022. However, Citadel Securities' Rubner lifted his bearish call and sees a potential March bounce as fundamental analysis signals a time to turn bullish on US equities.
Energy Crisis
Oil storage is filling fast in the Middle East with Hormuz blocked, threatening output cuts if the situation persists. The Iran war has pushed Middle East Dubai benchmark prices to eye-watering levels after Platts excluded Gulf loadings from key trading platforms. Jet fuel prices are surging globally as traders grapple with the fallout, adding to wider concerns about inflation. U.S. natural gas futures retreated under $3 as upward pressure on global prices eased.
Currency & Bond Markets
The dollar fell the most in nearly a month after a New York Times report said Iranian operatives had offered to discuss terms for ending the war. European bonds halted their selloff as traders weighed volatility in energy prices against prospects for Middle East talks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4% amid inflation worries, pushing borrowing costs higher across the Atlantic.
Corporate & M&A Activity
Goldman Sachs further sweetened terms on a $1.25 billion loan for DuPont's Aramids business acquisition amid ongoing market volatility. Ares Management sees a friendly lending environment in this higher interest rate environment, creating discipline in real estate markets. Moderna shares jumped as a settlement removed major legal overhangs from the pharmaceutical sector.
Tech & AI
Anthropic's ARR surged to $19 billion on Claude Code strength, highlighting continued AI sector momentum. Broadcom earnings are expected to report strong results, though even surpassing high bars may not reverse recent stock trends. OpenAI investor Vinod Khosla predicts today's 5-year-olds won't need jobs thanks to AI advancement.
Regional Impacts
Asian energy buyers are under stress as the Middle East war drags on, choking access to crude, refined fuels, and petrochemical feedstocks. African dollar bonds are widening as the Iran conflict drives investors into US dollar safety, lifting borrowing costs across the continent. India households face a looming fuel crunch as the crisis traps liquefied petroleum gas supplies in the Persian Gulf.
Defense & Security
Funds with sustainable investing goals are set to become meaningful backers of the defense industry as geopolitical tensions redefine ESG investing. NATO defenses shield Turkey as the Iran conflict spills into alliance territory. Energy stocks rally may be just getting started if Ukraine conflict lessons hold, with crude potentially spiking past $100.
Economic Indicators
Canada labor productivity edged down in the final quarter of 2025 as economic activity pulled back. Czech inflation unexpectedly slowed further in February, but the energy shock from the Iran war may limit the central bank's room for resuming interest rate cuts. Ghana's inflation rate fell to a near three-decade low in February, bolstering expectations for a fifth straight rate cut despite Middle East conflict threats.
Financial Services
Bank of Canada urges regulators to step up surveillance of lending by nonbank players like hedge funds to minimize financial stability risks. Fed grants Kraken access to the payments system in a first for crypto groups, allowing direct connection to central bank infrastructure. Wood Group was fined £13 million for overstating three years of profits after an FCA investigation found poor operating culture led to accounting errors.